Roberto Bautista Agut will face Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Monday, January 6, 2025, as the two Spaniards clash at the Great Ocean Road Open, taking place at The Drive in Adelaide, Australia. This Round of 32 encounter marks the fourth meeting between the two players. Bautista Agut, currently ranked No. 51, has won two of the previous three matchups against the No. 61 Davidovich Fokina, who heads to the competition with odds slightly favoring the latter.
Both players enter this match following disappointing results. Last week, Bautista Agut suffered a first-round loss at the China Open to Jiri Lehecka, with the final score reading 6-3, 2-6, 1-6. Conversely, Davidovich Fokina experienced defeat against Jaume Munar, also at the China Open, dropping the match 4-6, 6-3, 6-3. Although Bautista Agut has not competed since late November, he possesses strong historical performance on hard surfaces. Of his 711 wins throughout his career, 285 came on hard courts.
The matchup is set against the background of Bautista Agut's overall solid record of 285-154 on hard courts. His last significant performance was reaching the Round of 32 at the Adelaide International, where he lost against Sebastian Korda. Bautista Agut has demonstrated consistent service game success, winning approximately 76.7% of his service games over the past year.
Davidovich Fokina, on the other hand, has shown flashes of talent but struggled to maintain consistency. Last year was relatively challenging for him, and he ended with a 20-22 record, significantly contributing to his current ranking. The young Spaniard has to improve on his service game, showcasing only 73.8% wins through the last 12 months. He has also been erratic, losing to Munar by making too many unforced errors, which raises concerns about his current form.
When it pertains to their head-to-head encounters, Bautista Agut holds the edge, winning two of the previous three matches between the two players. Their last competitive match took place at the Adelaide International 2 quarterfinals, where Bautista Agut dominated with scores of 6-3 and 6-2. It demonstrates his capability to handle pressure effectively against Davidovich Fokina.
Bookmakers have placed the odds for the match reflecting nearly equal chances, with Davidovich Fokina offering -135 against Bautista Agut's +105. The implied probability has Davidovich at approximately 57% to secure the win, with Bautista Agut at about 48.8%. Nonetheless, expectations are leaning more favorably toward Bautista Agut, primarily due to his experience, track record, and superior performance on hard courts.
While some analysts predict the match could swing either way due to the odds, many believe Bautista Agut is set to show his expertise and decisively take control of the match.
The stakes are high for Bautista Agut as he aims to seize this opportunity to set the tone for his season, leaning on his prior achievements and also the weight of expectation from his initial rounds at major tournaments. For Davidovich Fokina, this match is pivotal, as he seeks to regain momentum and confidence at the start of the new year after struggling through late 2024.
Overall, fans can expect an exciting match on Monday, featuring significant tactical play as both athletes look to advance past the Round of 32 at the Great Ocean Road Open.