In recent months, significant shifts in political landscapes across North America have been noted, particularly in Canada and Mexico, largely influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive foreign policy tactics.
Since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, Trump's approach has been combative, resulting in a unique political climate where some leaders, including Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canada's new Prime Minister Mark Carney, have seen a bump in their approval ratings. This phenomenon underscores the complex dynamics of international relations where threats can sometimes bolster domestic political support.
Sheinbaum, who took office on October 1, 2024, is experiencing the highest approval ratings of any Mexican leader in 30 years, with as much as 85% support according to polls from El Financiero. In the face of Trump's proposed tariffs, she deployed National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border to manage immigration and mitigate potential fallout from potential trade sanctions. Trump had initially ordered a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, delaying its implementation after talks with Sheinbaum.
'Out of respect for our negotiations, products from Mexico will not see tariffs until April 2,' Trump declared on his Truth Social platform after meeting with Sheinbaum. This has seemingly paid off for Sheinbaum, whose government adopted a patient negotiation approach, earning public backing amid concerns over the economic repercussions.
According to a recent survey by Buendia y Marquez, she enjoys an 80% approval rating, a sentiment echoed by 85% approval in El Financiero polls. Interestingly, the Mexican populace seems to have mixed feelings about her handling of ties with Trump. Approximately 60% of respondents believe she’s addressing Trump's deportation policies adequately while 55% approve her strategy on tariffs. Yet, only 38% see U.S.-Mexico relations as being on good terms.
While many may attribute this political surge to Sheinbaum’s efforts, some analysts believe it stems from her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whose popularity remained high throughout his presidency, even into the final months of his term.
In Canada, the political situation saw further upheaval when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned on March 9, 2025, due to mounting pressure surrounding rising living costs and ongoing conflicts within his party. Newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney is now leading the ruling Liberal Party as they attempt to recover lost ground following significant polling deficits to the opposition Conservative Party.
Before stepping down, Trudeau had often been a target of Trump’s provocations, even appointing a 'fentanyl czar' to counter allegations that Canada was lax in handling illicit substances entering the U.S. His resignation has provided the Liberal Party a fresh start in a challenging political environment.
Since the beginning of 2025, Trump's administration has levied tariffs on Canadian exports. Polls track a decline in Conservative support, which recently shifted from a 24-point lead over the Liberals in early January to just 5.5 points as of March 17, 2025; Conservatives hold 38.9% support while Liberals have gained traction at 33.4%.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos, attributes this shift to multiple factors, including Trudeau’s resignation and the rise of Carney, coping with Trump's tariff threats alongside public discontent with the Conservative leadership under Pierre Poilievre.
Pundits note that Poilievre’s alignment with Trump's rhetoric might have deterred swing voters. 'Is that the direction we want this country to be in?' some swing voters ponder, prompting a reassessment of their political loyalties.
Meanwhile, overseas, tensions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also paint a vivid picture of the current geopolitical landscape. Trump accused Zelenskyy of being ungrateful for U.S. support during a meeting on February 28, 2025, leading to a halt in military and intelligence aid to Ukraine. However, a recent survey from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows an increase in trust for Zelenskyy, with 67% approval following the public fallout.
Trump’s bombastic style and unpredictable foreign policy are shaping political narratives, sometimes positively for leaders back home even as they navigate tricky diplomacy. How these shifting dynamics unfold will be pivotal as nations brace themselves for the continued uncertainties in international relations under the Trump administration.
