On March 19, 2025, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse declared, "It's over," in a video posted to X, announcing the end of the Securities and Exchange Commission's years-long lawsuit against Ripple, the developer of the XRP Ledger and its native token, XRP. This news resulted in an immediate surge of approximately 10% in XRP's price, showing the significant impact of regulatory developments on cryptocurrency values.
The SEC had accused Ripple of raising $1.3 billion through an unregistered securities offering in December 2020, launching a lawsuit that became a critical case in the ongoing discussion surrounding cryptocurrency regulations. However, in 2023, Ripple achieved a partial legal victory when a federal judge ruled that XRP was not a security when sold to retail investors but was classified as a security when sold to institutional investors. The SEC appealed this decision, but as of the latest news, it appears the regulator is stepping back from its case against Ripple.
Despite the initial optimistic response in the market, XRP has faced substantial price fluctuations following the announcement. After spiking to $2.59 on March 19, which marked an over 11% increase after the SEC news, prices have since settled in a range between $2.30 and $2.50, raising concerns among traders and investors about the sustainability of this bullish momentum.
Analyzing technical market indicators reveals an emerging bearish trend in XRP. The three-line break chart, which filters out short-term noise, displayed a shift from bullish to bearish momentum indicated by the presence of a new red bar that occurred early in March 2025. This chart is particularly effective in illustrating trend changes based on price movements alone.
Furthermore, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, which helps gauge the strength of price trends, is producing deeper bars below the zero line. Following the previous indicator's positive flip in November 2024—concurrent with XRP's price surge from $1 to above $3—this recent data suggests strengthening downside momentum. Similarly, the 5- and 10-week simple moving averages have crossed into bearish territory, reinforcing the notion that the path ahead may be fraught with obstacles for XRP.
In addition to the ongoing developments with Ripple, the wider cryptocurrency market has witnessed significant regulatory scrutiny. In recent weeks, the SEC dropped cases and investigations into multiple crypto firms, including Coinbase, Uniswap, and Kraken, as part of a shift toward establishing a more comprehensive regulatory framework for the industry. This shift may indicate an environment that will bring both clarity and challenges to cryptocurrency operations in the U.S.
Moreover, as Broader optimism remains amid the uncertainty, some analysts continue to project bullish scenarios for XRP. Certain forecasts suggest that XRP could hit $10 by the end of the decade, driven by the potential adoption of cryptocurrency as part of strategic reserves and renewed interest in ETFs linked to XRP. However, in light of the apparent bearish signals, traders are currently cautious.
A critical level for bulls to convert the current sentiment is the $3 mark, which was last seen on March 2, 2025. Experts believe that a firm move past this point could not only invalidate the existing bearish setup but also signal a renewed bullish outlook for XRP. In contrast, maintaining the price below this threshold might continue to reaffirm bearish sentiment, which has been historically observed following market peaks.
Ripple's situation, alongside its implications for XRP and the wider cryptocurrency markets, reflects an evolving narrative in the world of digital assets. As regulatory challenges persist, the market reacts with a mix of optimism and caution. Still, for many investors and traders, the dropping of the SEC lawsuit represents a potential turning point that might influence sentiment positively in the long run, even as current technical indicators urge vigilance. Ultimately, the engagement of market forces will dictate the future trajectory of XRP and its peers.
