San Diego State enters its fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament play with a matchup against North Carolina, a storied program that has recently faced challenges. This meeting occurs tonight, March 19, 2025, at 9:10 p.m. ET on TruTV in Dayton, Ohio, as part of the NCAA’s First Four. The eager winner of this clash will advance as the eleventh seed in the South Region and take on sixth-seeded Ole Miss in the first round.
With an overall record of 21-9 and a Mountain West Conference record of 14-6, San Diego State’s postseason credentials include consistent tournament appearances under head coach Brian Dutcher. Remarkably, this will be their sixth NCAA Tournament in eight years, although one might argue they could have had seven appearances had the 2020 tournament not been canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic when they finished the regular season with an impressive 30-2 record. Last season, the Aztecs made it to the Sweet 16 before their heartbreaking elimination. Most recently, they advanced to the championship game in 2022-2023, culminating in a loss to UConn.
The same can’t be said for North Carolina, whose storied history includes 21 Final Four appearances and six national championships—figures that leave many fans yearning for the glory days of more consistent success. This year, the Tar Heels finished with a 22-13 overall record and 13-7 in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). Since Hubert Davis took over for legendary coach Roy Williams, who guided the team to multiple championships from 2003 to 2021, they find themselves in the NCAA Tournament for the third time in four years, but not without a fair share of ups and downs.
Despite North Carolina's recent struggles, they finished fifth in the ACC and were knocked out in the semifinals by in-state rival Duke. However, the Heels still bring high-scoring capability to the court, with a robust average of 80.8 points per game—ranking second in the ACC. Yet, defensive issues plague them as they allow 75 points per game, ranking fourth worst in the league.
In terms of individual performances, the Tar Heels are led by fifth-year senior guard RJ Davis, who currently averages 17.3 points per game. He is joined by Ian Jackson and Seth Trimble, who contribute 12.4 and 11.6 points per game, respectively. On the other hand, San Diego State's offensive struggles are evident; the Aztecs rank only seventh in their conference with an average of 70.9 points per game but excel on the defensive end, allowing just 63.6 points per game—the best in the Mountain West and the fourteenth in the nation.
As fans and analysts continue to discuss the match's dynamics, North Carolina is favored by 4.5 points, according to BetMGM, with an over/under set at 142.5 points. The Tar Heels are seen as stronger betting contenders due to their potent offensive statistics, even if their defensive strategies leave much to be desired. Nevertheless, San Diego State has a secret weapon in the newly returning Magoon Gwath, who had missed the Mountain West Tournament due to a knee injury. This 7-foot freshman, named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, averaged 8.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.64 blocks per game before his injury.
Although the Tar Heels' path to this matchup could be traced back to securing a last-minute tournament spot, it can be attributed largely to Memphis's recent victory over UAB in the American Athletic Conference. Keith Gill, vice chair of the NCAA selection committee, confirmed that Memphis's win ensured that UNC would be the last school to secure a spot in the NCAA as an at-large team. With a referenced NET ranking of 36th and a somewhat lackluster 1-12 record against Quad 1 competitions, their selection left some questioning the committee's judgment but ultimately spotlighted their potential.
Guided by cumulative performances throughout this season, including a remarkable non-conference schedule, North Carolina clinched significant victories, such as a notable win against UCLA. While they lost to Duke in the ACC semifinals, they paradoxically managed to earn their tournament appearance aided by their strength in metrics against other bubble teams. The Tar Heels showed resolve by winning eight of their final ten games, pushing to make a deeper run—this time with the hopes of channeling past successes.
As the stage is set, fans are ready for what promises to be an electric showdown. North Carolina’s athleticism pits against San Diego State’s grit, leading many to wonder how this clash within March Madness actually unfolds. As the match approaches, both teams are eager for the challenge and the spotlight that comes with NCAA tournament hopes. Indeed, the winner has a date with sixth-seeded Ole Miss in Milwaukee just around the corner, making this an even more vital contest for both teams.
Ultimately, as competition ensues, the anticipation builds for what could be a memorable night of college basketball in Dayton—an ode to March Madness and the dreams each team aspires to chase.
