The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) has issued detailed forecasts for March 5, 2025, indicating significant weather disruption across Mexico as cold front number 31 moves through the country. This system is projected to bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and fluctuated temperatures, affecting multiple regions.
According to the SMN, on this day, heavy rains are expected particularly in the states of Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Tabasco, where accumulations could reach between 25 to 50 millimeters. These conditions are caused by cold front number 31 which will extend over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatán Peninsula, resulting not only in precipitation but also electrical discharges and even the possibility of hail.
"Cold front number 31 will produce unstable weather conditions across broad swathes of Mexico, with strong winds gusting between 60 to 80 kilometers per hour along the coasts of Veracruz, Isthmus, and the Gulf of Tehuantepec," noted the SMN. These high winds also span to Tabasco, Campeche, and Yucatán, with gusts expected to be between 40 to 60 km/h.
Temperatures are forecasted to be extreme, with the first heat wave of the season overlapping with the arrival of the cold front, creating unusually volatile weather. Reports indicate maximum temperatures could soar to between 40 and 45 degrees Celsius particularly across Jalisco, Michoacán, Guerrero, Morelos, and Oaxaca. Meanwhile, states such as Sonora, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, and others might also experience high temperatures of 35 to 40 degrees Celsius.
Simultaneously, the expected weather front will interact with polar troughs and jet streams, leading to conditions more conducive to wind and rain, particularly affecting the northwest. Gusts of wind are projected to reach as high as 100 km/h in Coahuila, with 70 to 90 km/h anticipated for Chihuahua, Durango, and Nuevo León.
The mass of cold air accompanying this system will promote not merely cooling temperatures but also generate dust storms across various regions, and waves could rise to between 2 to 4 meters along the western coastal areas of Baja California. Given these conditions, officials are urging precautions as these factors can significantly impact safety and travel.
Hard-hit areas, especially along the Gulf and affected states, should prepare for possible flooding, landslides, and other risks associated with severe weather conditions. Notably, the SMN earmarks the morning of March 5 as particularly hazardous, advising the public to remain alert to changes and updates.
The Valley of Mexico is forecasted to experience relatively milder conditions, though temperatures remain variable. It is expected to be cool to temperate during the mornings, with the anxiety expected to shift to much warmer temperatures during the afternoons. Therein, isolated rain showers could also sweep through the region, particularly impacting the State of Mexico.
For the state of Mérida, maximum temperatures are expected to climb to between 34 and 36 degrees Celsius during the day. Instances of humidity were noted where the temperature was recorded at 25 degrees Celsius at 8:00 AM with 82% humidity, reflecting the oppressive heat expected over the coming hours as the environment becomes increasingly uncomfortable.
Juan Antonio Palma Solís, the coordinator for the weather agency Meteored Mexico, noted on social media, "Today marks the arrival of cold front number 31, which I have dubbed 'Zotz.' Rains are expected across various regions as it arrives, bringing with it weather anomalies not typically seen this early for the season."
Even as this “Norte” event provokes intense winds, the Mexican populace should gear up for the first heat wave of the month which could persist until March 6, according to the forecasts from Conagua. Citizens are advised to remain hydrated and to stay indoors if possible during the peak heat hours.
The forecasts have painted an unsettling picture of extremes contrasting with each other, highlighting the need for awareness and readiness to adapt to these rapid changes. Observers note these unique atmospheric occurrences are diminishing typical patterns and may point to broader climate variations.
Overall, the combination of intense winds, rainfall, and heat are underscoring the complex meteorological patterns observed across Mexico on March 5. The SMN continues to monitor and provide updates as conditions evolve throughout the day, aiming to minimize impacts experienced by residents.