Japan is taking proactive steps to solidify its diplomatic relationships with key allies as the Trump administration begins. The nation is preparing for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's visit to the United States, planned for mid-February, where he hopes to meet with President Donald Trump. According to government sources, Ishiba is eager to build trust with the incoming administration, with Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya already set to attend Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
During this significant diplomatic moment, the leaders of Japan, the United States, Australia, and India—the countries forming the Quad—are expect to convene their top diplomats for discussions on January 21. This meeting is strategically timed to coincide with Trump’s inauguration, reflecting the Quad's commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region as stated in their previous declaration.
"We would like to first build a relationship of trust" with the incoming Trump administration, Iwaya stated during discussions with Japanese broadcaster NHK. His trip will prioritize establishing close ties with potential future allies, including Marco Rubio, who has been nominated for U.S. Secretary of State. It is noteworthy as Japan typically sends only its ambassador to such events, showcasing the importance of this moment.
While Ishiba considers his potential meeting with Trump, he is also focused on the broader issues impacting the region. His trip will likely address concerns about trade and security, particularly Nippon Steel Corp.'s ambitions to acquire United States Steel Corp., which has met resistance from both Trump and President Joe Biden, signaling possible frictions with U.S. trade policy.
Trump's election heralds the return of his "America First" policy, initially skeptical of multilateral agreements. This poses the question of how Japan and its Quad partners will adapt their strategies to align with U.S. policies, especially those related to trade tariffs. Iwaya has already indicated apprehensions about Trump's plans to raise tariffs, cautioning against potential retaliatory measures, which could harm the global economy.
Explaining Japan's economic contributions to the U.S. is among Iwaya's key diplomatic tasks. "Such moves could trigger retaliatory tariffs and end up shrinking the global economy," he warned during the NHK debate. Iwaya emphasized reaching out to U.S. officials, urging them to assess trade issues carefully and work collaboratively with allies.
During the inauguration week, Iwaya’s agenda also includes confirming the significance of trilateral collaborations with South Korea, as he embarks on a visit to the nation for discussions on regional stability. This highlights the importance Japan places on continuing to coordinate its defense strategies with both South Korea and the U.S.
With Ishiba's arrival on U.S. soil preceding the formal summit, stakeholders are optimistic about reinforcing the Japan-U.S. alliance and fostering discussions to mitigate trade tensions. Ishiba's administration hopes to navigate the complexity of Trump's diplomatic style, which is often described as transactional, requiring clarity on Japan's defense contributions.
Japan's commitment to its defense continues as it considers the potential calls for increased military spending by the Trump administration. Iwaya, hinting at Japan's efforts, expressed the need to clarify the nation’s current expenditure levels to U.S. officials.
Overall, these meetings come at a time of uncertainty, which might define the future interactions between the Quad nations and the U.S. leadership under Trump. With the Quad initially formed following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, its evolution has become pivotal for strategic partnerships within the Indo-Pacific area, particularly amid rising tensions with China.
The timing of the Quad meeting and subsequent discussions between Ishiba and Trump could prove beneficial not only for Japan but also for all member states as they collectively approach changing geopolitical dynamics. The international community will be watching closely as these talks could influence broader economic policies and defense strategies moving forward.