Berlin has witnessed significant political shifts following the recent federal elections held on February 23, 2025. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), collectively known as the Union, emerged victorious with 28.5% of the votes, setting the stage for Friedrich Merz to likely assume the chancellorship.
This election has marked the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Olaf Scholz's steep decline, securing only 16.4% of the votes—its worst result since the start of federal elections in Germany. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a historic leap, doubling its support to 20.8% and confirming its stronghold, especially among voters from the former East Germany.
Merz quickly declared, "Today evening we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we will start working," indicating his commitment to forming a government posthaste. The CDU/CSU coalition, with its newly acquired 208 seats, is favored to partner with the SPD, which has dropped to 121 seats. This potential alliance aims to secure the required majority, especially as the 630-seat Bundestag will need 316 votes for legislative passage.
Significantly, the voter turnout was impressively high, reaching approximately 84%. This reflects the electorate's engagement amid contentious policy debates surrounding immigration and economic reforms which resonate differently across diverse demographics.
The traditional leaning of the AfD, which garnered approximately 42% of its votes from elderly citizens, poses both challenges and opportunities for the new government. Tino Chrupalla, co-chairman of the AfD, warned of the party's growing strength, stating, "If other parties continue to ostracize the AfD, we might gain absolute majority next elections." Such sentiments highlight the potential for right-wing populist discourse to gain legitimacy within the German political framework.
While Merz has made it clear he opposes any coalition with the AfD, he expressed his plans for governance with the intent of restoring order and addressing key national issues. He remarked, "We must radically limit immigration to Germany...that's indisputable." This perspective aligns with broader conservative sentiments across Europe where immigration remains at the forefront of political concerns.
Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz, who remains as Chancellor until the new government is officially formed, acknowledged the SPD’s poor performance, admitting the need for internal reflection and strategy realignment. He pointedly remarked, "This is the worst result for the SPD since Germany's federal elections began," indicating the depth of the party’s troubles.
Coalition negotiations are expected to intensify as Merz aims to finalize agreements by Easter, which falls on April 21, 2025. The pressing timeline reflects the urgency to stabilize governance amid the rising economic and migration challenges Germany faces.
Analysts predict the formation of either a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition or potentially extending to include the Greens, but the latter remains at risk due to insufficient seat allocation, reflecting the fragmented nature of the political spectrum. With 85 seats, the Greens may be sidelined if the CDU and SPD — two traditionally opposing forces — can reconcile their differences sufficiently to forge common ground.
This election's outcome is poised to not only reshape domestic politics but also Germany's role within the European Union. Various European media outlets have expressed hope for Merz to reinvigorate Germany's leadership on the continent during tumultuous times influenced by geopolitical shifts and issues related to U.S. relations.
For now, the future indicates considerable challenges as the next government must balance internal priorities with increasing external pressures from the EU and the broader international community. Amidst the backdrop of historic voter engagement, the actions taken by Germany's elected officials will undoubtedly have significant ramifications both at home and abroad.