The impact of avian influenza, particularly the recent outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) known as H5N1, has sent ripples through the poultry and egg supply chain across the United States, raising concerns among producers and consumers alike. With the holiday season approaching, the combination of confirmed cases among commercial flocks and the psychological effects on consumer confidence has led to price increases and localized shortages.
Americans planning holiday baking may find themselves competing for a key ingredient - eggs. Reports indicate shortages are becoming prevalent, especially at retailers like Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, particularly because many of these stores only sell cage-free eggs. According to Emily Metz, president of the American Egg Board, some states impacted the hardest are California, Oregon, and Washington, where the recent bird flu outbreaks concentrated predominantly on cage-free farms. "After two months of no outbreaks, we had them recently in Utah, Oregon, California, and Washington," Metz explained, highlighting the spread of HPAI across these specific states.
The situation is dire; after experiencing a lull, HPAI resurfaced starting mid-October, resulting in the loss of approximately 2.8 million birds, contributing to the nationwide egg production decrease of 2.6% last month compared to the previous year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service forecasts even more declines as the year progresses. The total loss due to outbreaks since January 2022 has affected nearly 110 million birds nationwide, which includes chickens, turkeys, and other poultry.
Just last week, HPAI was confirmed among more than 2.2 million egg-laying hens just weeks after another million were culled at commercial operations. Meanwhile, over 790,000 egg layers were also euthanized at another farm facility, bringing the egg supply to alarming low levels.
This spike in avian flu cases has caused 'hyper-localized shortages' rather than widespread scarcity, Metz indicated, with empty shelves appearing intermittently as retailers manage rapid fluctuations. While these localized shortages typically resolve quickly, the overall effect on supply is exacerbated by consumer worry.
Brent Nelson, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, noted the historical patterns of fluctuated egg prices, driven heavily by supply disruptions like those caused by HPAI. The current national average for eggs is reported at $3.37 per dozen, up 30% from the previous year yet lower than the high of $4.82 reached earlier. Regions like California are seeing even steeper price hikes, with white cage-free eggs priced around $5.26 per dozen–a staggering increase of nearly 90% since last year.
Despite these price surges and supply issues, experts caution consumers against hoarding eggs, as the shortages are mostly fleeting and stores typically replenish supplies quickly. Metz reassured, "There’s enough supply, and eggs keep well in the fridge, so buyers shouldn't panic. If they're not available today, chances are they will be back soon." Yet, with avian influenza being the most significant factor affecting prices, many are left wondering how these instances will evolve as the winter months progress.
The latest outbreaks aren’t just affecting consumer chicken and egg availability but raising alarms about the health of farmworkers, particularly where testing and tracking of the virus is concerned. Recent cases of avian flu among farmworkers have emerged, with incidences reported as early as 2024. One such case occurred on a large poultry farm in Franklin County, Washington, raising questions about how prepared regions are to navigate potential outbreaks among employees.
According to Amy Liebman from the Migrant Clinicians Network, insufficient testing leaves many positive cases undiagnosed, which complicates public health responses. The CDC has recommended increased testing for those exposed to infected animals, but many states, especially Idaho, show glaring gaps. Idaho has only conducted seven human tests amid rising poultry cases, with Washington and Oregon slightly more proactive with more established testing protocols.
Elizabeth Strater, spokesperson for United Farm Workers, emphasized the stress these gaps create for farmworkers, particularly the roles of undocumented laborers who may fear repercussion from seeking healthcare or missed workdays. She raised concerns over potential human-to-human transmission – should outbreaks continue to spread unchecked among these vulnerable populations.
With avian influenza cases continuing to spike not just among poultry but also cattle, the growing concern for cross-species transmission highlights the urgency of monitoring and combatting these outbreaks, considering the possibility of merging with flu strains among humans, posing potential public health threats.
Public health officials across affected regions stress the importance of tracking symptoms and conducting routine testing, especially following any new livestock infections. They urge immediate actions to streamline testing, contact tracing, and protocols for managing outbreaks among farmworkers, ensuring their health and the security of food supplies remain top priorities.
Overall, as consumers face potentially higher prices and egg scarcity this season, the poultry industry scrambles under the pressure of HPAI outbreaks, spotlighting the need for enhanced monitoring and response measures. Without proactive action, it leaves the supply vulnerable and affects food availability and prices at grocery stores across the country.
With the uncertainty surrounding avian flu cases, buyers across the nation will be keeping a close eye on their local produce sections, hoping for recovery as holiday baking season peaks.
