After 13 tumultuous years of civil war, the recent fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks not only the end of his family's iron-fisted rule over Syria but also sets off shockwaves across the Middle East. Observers are pondering the ramifications of this remarkable turn of events, which many see as bringing the curtain down on the Assad era—an era characterized by repression, civil strife, and international intrigue. On December 8, 2024, rebel forces accomplished what many thought impossible: seizing the capital, Damascus, causing Assad to flee to Moscow and leaving his regime in shambles.
This regime change has reignited discussions on the significant geopolitical shifts it could bring to the region. Countries like Iran, Turkey, and Russia—which each played distinct roles during the Syrian conflict—are now recalibracing their strategies to respond to the new reality.
The rapid advancement of rebel forces began with their strong offensive in Aleppo, where resistance from Assad’s military and his Russian allies was unexpectedly low. This series of offensives not only took key cities like Hama and Homs but also released hundreds of political prisoners. For many Syrians, the jubilation of liberation contrasted sharply with the looming questions of stability and governance. What does their future hold now?
"We declare the city of Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad," proclaimed the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) via WhatsApp, reflecting the sentiment shared by many liberated citizens. The shift marks what experts are calling the most significant realignment of power since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which similarly disrupted the political order of the region.
Notably, the collapse of Assad's regime significantly impacts Iran, its closest ally. For years, Syria served as Iran's gateway to exert influence across the region, especially through the militant group Hezbollah which has relied heavily on Syrian territory for logistics and support. With Assad's government collapse, the “Iranization of the region,” which involved promoting Shia ideologies and interests, faces substantial setbacks.
Hezbollah, long dependent on Syria for resources and support, now finds itself weakened following the dual setbacks of Israel's military actions and Assad’s fall. Since its emergence during the Lebanese Civil War, this group has played a significant role on Iran's side, serving both as military power and political actor. But the pressures of the recent conflict with Israel and domestic dissent have left Hezbollah vulnerable. "We’ve seen Hezbollah downgraded, and its previous advantages have eroded significantly," explains Osamah Khalil, emphasizing the larger shift at play.
Meanwhile, Turkey's perspective on the Assad downfall is quite different. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has long championed the Syrian opposition, views this moment as ripe for expansion of influence. With millions of Syrian refugees having crossed the border, the refugee crisis has been pressing on Turkish society—one the Erdoğan government wishes to resolve by establishing stable governance across the border. "This is Türkiye's moment to capitalize on their long-standing backing of Syrian opposition forces," says Eric Fleury.
Russia's involvement complicates matters. The Kremlin had invested heavily in Assad's regime, leveraging its military support as part of its broader interests against Western influence and ensuring its foothold along the Mediterranean. The loss of Assad, who had been considered as Moscow's key ally, raises questions about Russia's military strategy and the resources it is willing to commit for new allies or future engagements.
Historically, the Assad regime has been synonymous with the broader authoritarian-led control of the Middle East, rooted deeply within the fabric of Arab nationalism. With its removal, analysts suggest, we may witness the end of this specific political narrative, which has characterized the region since the late 20th century.
"You’re talking about five decades of power under the Assad banner, alongside the consolidation of authoritarian rule. This signifies the end of the era for such ruling elite across the Arab world," emphasizes Trevor Bach, echoing sentiments of many political scientists and historians.
The effects of this regime change will undoubtedly be felt internationally. Amidst rising tensions, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have quietly resumed. Hezbollah's role as Iran's regional enforcer is now questioned. The regional chessboard has been reset, and its pieces are now being repositioned as players like Iran recalibrate their strategies. With the collapse of Assad's regime, the long-standing but tenuous alliances will be tested as nations navigate the new balance of power.
While the excitement surrounding the fall of Assad is palpable, the aftermath holds just as much weight. The people of Syria grapple with the massive uncertainty of their country’s future, hoping against hope for stability and rebuilding. Whether they achieve lasting peace remains to be seen, but what is clear is the ripple effects of this upheaval will make waves across the Middle East for years to come.
