With 2024 nearing its end, it’s clear the planet is experiencing unprecedented heat. Recent data indicates this year is on course to become the hottest on record, following months of exceptionally warm global average temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization has even issued what they call a "red alert" for the planet, stating the years between 2015 and 2024 represent the warmest decade on record. This increase has sparked dramatic environmental changes, including the melting of glaciers, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events worldwide.
Coinciding with these pressing concerns is the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference. Held this year from November 15 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan, this conference aims to garner commitment from participating nations to update their climate action plans. The discussions are centered on international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which have been identified as the primary culprit behind the alarming rise in global temperatures.
To shed light on these urgent issues, UVA Today sat down with Scott Doney, a professor specializing in environmental change at the University of Virginia. Doney highlighted the compelling evidence supporting the claim of anthropogenic climate change. Long-term datasets reveal significant increases in surface temperatures, both on land and sea. He noted, "The previous decade was the hottest recorded, and with 2024 following suit, we must question how we can best combat this trend." The evidence presents itself not only through temperature data but also through observable changes—like shrinking glaciers and diminishing Arctic sea ice—and indicates human activity is responsible for increased emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.
Extreme weather events seem to be becoming the new normal, with recent catastrophic flooding in Spain and wildfires scorching the western United States serving as testaments to this phenomenon. Doney explained how climate change influences these events: “It alters the water cycles extensively. Warmer oceans evaporate more water, creating conditions ripe for extreme rainfall. Therefore, we can expect more intense storms and floods as our climate continues to heat up.” Climate change not only intensifies rain and floods but also increases the frequency of droughts and raises temperatures dramatically, which fosters conditions favorable for wildfires.
At the heart of the UN Climate Change Conference lies the commitment made under the Paris Agreement, where countries pledged to cap global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Alarmingly, the Earth’s average temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5-degree threshold. Experts warn catastrophic results may follow if we allow temperatures to rise unchecked. Doney emphasized the urgency of this situation, stating, “Reaching net-zero carbon emissions globally is necessary before the century's end to avoid catastrophic warming.”
So, what are the prospects for limiting global warming? It requires rapid and aggressive reductions across all sectors contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Doney pointed out the role of renewable energy sources like solar and wind as pivotal, stating, “To honor the Paris Agreement, we must accelerate our shift away from fossil fuel reliance.”
Addressing climate change presents two main challenges: adapting to the consequences of existing climate changes, and mitigation—meaning the steps necessary to stabilize future climate change. Climate adaptation revolves around acknowledging the reality of our changing climate, like increased flood risks and adjustments to infrastructure needs due to sea-level rise. Meanwhile, mitigation strategies entail transitioning away from fossil fuels across various sectors, including energy, agriculture, and transportation. Doney noted positive strides have been made, such as enhanced energy efficiency and the rising popularity of electric vehicles, but emphasized the necessity for exponential growth to meet our climate targets.
On the broader stage of global climate politics, amid calls for urgent action, leaders are grappling with the political, economic, and technological confines of their respective nations. The reality remains: the future of our climate hinges on collective global action, adapting to and addressing the adverse effects already manifest, and decisively shifting away from fossil fuel dependency.
Further complicity resides within health ramifications stemming from climate change. A recent study highlighted by the Science Advances journal indicated over 110,000 deaths across Europe due to extreme temperatures between 2022 and 2023. With climate change intertwining with public health, the evolution of early warning systems could prove lifesaving, especially for vulnerable populations. These systems utilize epidemiological models to turn traditional weather forecasts—primarily revolving around temperature—into health forecasts, predicting temperature-related mortality with greater accuracy.
The necessity of this shift can't be overstated as climate impacts on health grow ever more evident. The study revealed variances based on season and location, underscoring the need for local contextuality to develop effective public health responses. Forecasting systems must continually refine their methodologies to sustain trust with public health authorities.
With 2024 already set to break records and the countdown to national and international climate conferences igniting discussions globally, the urgency for action sits at the forefront of both local and global dialogues as nations strive to avert catastrophic climatic outcomes.
While the world’s leaders convene, scientists and healthcare experts alike urge the inclusion of climate contingencies within broader public health strategies. Without sustained efforts toward adaptation and mitigation, the threats posed by climate change will only intensify.
