Kyiv and Washington are on the verge of formalizing a significant mineral resource agreement amid the backdrop of the war with Russia, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizing the importance of security guarantees.
During a press conference held on Wednesday, Zelenskyy revealed Ukraine is working on finalizing terms for sharing access to its rich deposits of rare earth minerals with the United States. He cautioned, though, "Without future security guarantees, we will not have a real ceasefire." His comments point to the complicated relationship between the two nations as they look to solidify economic ties.
Reports indicate the agreement would establish a joint investment fund, where both Ukraine and the US would manage proceeds from the nation’s mineral resources equally. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated, "The provisions of the deal are muchbetter for Ukraine now." This marks a shift from earlier discussions where the US had demanded $500 billion of mineral wealth from Ukraine.
The details surrounding the agreement are still being negotiated, but it is expected to include Ukraine contributing 50% of future revenues from state-owned resources to the fund. This move aims to aid Ukraine's reconstruction efforts, providing much-needed economic resources as it continues to defend against Russian advances.
Zelenskyy, who acknowledged the balanced nature of the anticipated fund, has reiterated the need for security guarantees tied to the deal. He stated, "I wanted to have a sentence on security guarantees for Ukraine, and it's importantthat it's there." These guarantees are seen as pivotal for ensuring Ukraine can sustain any ceasefire with Russia, should one be achieved.
US President Donald Trump has expressed optimism over the agreement's potential, noting, "It could be a trillion-dollar deal." He emphasized the importance of getting funds back to American taxpayers as part of the arrangement. Trump remarked, "The American taxpayer now is going to get their money back plus," reflecting the pressures of domestic US politics on the international agreements.
Conflicting expectations have characterized the negotiation process, especially concerning guarantees of military support from the US. Zelenskyy has been clear about his push for definitive security guarantees, warning, "If we don't get security guarantees, we won't have ceasefire, nothing will work, nothing." These sentiments resonate with the precarious situation Ukraine finds itself continually facing.
On the negotiation front, both nations seem to be softening their stances, with Ukraine previously resisting the notion of handing significant wealth over to the US. Despite the lack of definitive security arrangements, Shmyhal stated, "the US supported Ukraine's efforts to obtain security guarantees to build lasting peace." The relationship is, nonetheless, one heavily entwined with mutual dependencies prompted by the war.
The details surrounding the resources involved remain murky; it has been made clear by officials from both sides there may be restrictions on certain resources already being utilized, such as oil and gas. The draft deal particularly notes concerns around mineral deposits currently under Russian occupation, complicatng matters substantially. Ukraine's resources are estimated to hold 5% of the world’s 'critical raw materials'—a detail stressing the deal's importance.
The signing of this agreement looms as Zelenskyy's visit to Washington approaches, signaling potential changes not only for Ukraine’s economy but its diplomatic relations as well. Trump anticipated the signing, mentioning, "I understand that's a big deal, a very big deal."
Analysts and former officials view the mineral deal as one of Trump's strategies to assert pressure during negotiations, entwining economic transactions closely with military assistance. Zelenskyy has proposed the mineral sharing primarily as reassurances for continued US engagement should the war with Russia escalate again.
Preliminary delays on security guarantees could hinder the final agreement, with Zelenskyy emphasizing he'd be "very direct" with Trump, expressly asking whether the US would continue supporting Ukraine. Amidst these negotiations, the Kremlin has responded cautiously but defiantly, with Putin stating they are ready to offer resources to their American counterparts.
Complex diplomatic relations are weaving around the practicalities of the mineral deal, pushing both governments to reconsider previous demands and align on terms beneficial for both parties. Whether the deal concludes successfully remains to be seen, yet it could reshape the economic and geopolitical grounds for US and Ukrainian relations moving forward.