The relationship between the United States and the European Union has undergone significant changes since Donald Trump took office, marked by rising tensions and shifting perceptions. These developments are rooted deeply in the policy framework championed by Trump, particularly his "America First" approach, which is increasingly viewed as isolative by European nations.
Recent findings from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) reveal stark shifts in the perceptions of the US among European citizens. Approximately 50% of surveyed Europeans now regard the US only as a "necessary partner" rather than as an ally. This figure reflects not just statistical findings but also emotional and ideological shifts within the European public across various nations. Countries with traditionally strong ties to the US, such as Ukraine, Estonia, and Denmark, recorded the highest sentiments of viewing the US merely as a transactional partner.
According to Pawel Zerka, a senior fellow at ECFR, "this survey showcases the changing dynamics of how European nations perceive the transatlantic relationship, particularly after Trump's re-election and subsequent trade policies." The survey encompassed 18,507 respondents across 14 European nations and highlighted how the shift aligns with Trump's controversial policies and protective trade measures.
One significant policy milestone was Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum from other countries on February 10, 2025. This decision was met with immediate consternation from European leaders, who have been alarmed at the prospect of trade wars igniting between the two economic powerhouses.
Henrik Adam, the President of the European Steel Association (Eurofer), expressed concerns over the impacts of such tariffs on the EU's steel industry. Adam noted, "The situation for the European steel industry will only worsen because we can't offset the loss of the US market, which constitutes about 16% of our exports." This sentiment was echoed by Maroš Šefčovič, Vice President of the European Commission, who stated, "The 25% tariff is economically counterproductive," underlining the deep integration of production chains across the Atlantic.
The European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, promised to explore necessary actions to protect EU interests but has so far withheld details on specific retaliatory measures. During this period of uncertainty, Von der Leyen stated her disappointment with Trump’s tariff decision, emphasizing the longstanding beneficial trade relationship shared between the US and the EU, valued at approximately $1.5 trillion annually.
Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany, urged for unity among European nations as they ponder responses to this current challenge, stating, "If the US does not provide Europe with other alternatives, we will respond collectively. Trade wars always harm both sides." This comment speaks to the overarching sentiment among EU leaders to present a united front against the pressures manifested through tariffs.
Reflecting broader geopolitical sentiments, the rise of ultra-right parties within Europe has also caused divisions concerning perceptions of the US, with varying viewpoints on relationships based on nationalist ideologies. For example, the National Rally (RN) party from France has tempered its approach toward the US since Trump’s administration returned to power, which contrasts with the sentiment among alternative right factions like Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Zerka illustrated this divide, indicating how some European parties increasingly see the need for reevaluation of their positions toward transatlantic relations. "The outcome of the ECFR survey indicates countries no longer see the US as the stalwart ally once perceived," he noted.
The surveys and reactions from top officials suggest underlying tensions are exacerbated by the clash of economic philosophies between Europe and Trump's administration. The European Union, already bearing trade imbalances concerning services (with deficits near $104 billion), is becoming increasingly wary of US-led trade platforms. The EU's historical surplus with the US on goods, amounting to €156 billion ($161 billion), is being overshadowed by fears of protectionist measures leading to harmful retaliations.
While some European Union leaders seek opportunities to respond assertively to US tariffs, the specter of increased trade conflict looms over future relations. The planned meeting between Ursula von der Leyen and Vice President JD Vance post-summit concerning artificial intelligence reflects both hope and concern among EU officials about reinforcing these economic ties.
Despite expressions of willingness to sustain transatlantic relationships, the underlying fragility of these ties hints at potential trouble down the road. A recent ECFR survey concluded, "Europeans showing reluctance to see the US as their ally is indicative of the broader geopolitical shift where historical bonds are now being subjected to scrutiny amid economic pressures."