On February 18, 2025, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaged directly with Russian officials for the first time since the outbreak of hostilities surrounding Ukraine, meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to explore potential resolutions to the long-running conflict.
The discussions come as both nations grapple with the challenging dynamics of the war, which began when Russian forces invaded Ukraine back on February 24, 2022, triggering widespread sanctions and international condemnation. The exchange was reportedly cordial but centered on sensitive issues, including Europe’s security architecture and the possibility of using frozen Russian assets to help reconstruct war-torn Ukraine.
Rubio assured European allies during a phone call prior to the negotiations, according to The New York Times, stating definitively, "The Trump administration has no plans to impose the terms of any bilateral agreement with Russia on Ukraine and Europe." This statement seemed to allay concerns among European leaders who were apprehensive about the ramifications of any agreement reached without their involvement.
Reflecting the complexity of the discussions, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Kremlin, remarked, "A long-term resolution of the conflict is impossible without a comprehensive examination of security issues on the continent." This comment hints at Russia's intent to rethink NATO's expansion since the 1990s and discusses the balance of military presence and responsibilities on the European continent.
The backdrop to this dialogue is significant; with Russia mobilizing approximately 700,000 troops and showcasing advanced weaponry, the looming prospect of conflict remains palpable. It raises questions about how prepared European countries, particularly those bordering Russia, are for potential confrontations.
Rubio emphasized the importance of the negotiations indicating the upcoming US-Russia talks would serve not just as diplomatic overtures but as tests of each nation’s commitments to meaningful resolutions. He noted, "The US sanctions on Russia would remain... but some sanctions could be eased if Russia made the desired progress." This underlines the delicate balancing act both sides must manage as they navigate the prospect of thawing relations.
There’s increasing concern over the potential need for the European Union to maintain military support for Ukraine should talks stall or fail. Recently, the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel revealed analyses indicating the EU would only require minor adjustments—0.12% of GDP—to compensate for the fading of US military contributions, which have totaled approximately €64 billion since February 2022.
Should Ukraine balk at peace agreements proposed by Russia and the US, reports suggest the EU may raise its military expenditures significantly to combat Russia’s continuing strength, which also includes discussions of establishing new arms races. Europe’s commitment to strengthening its military capabilities is seen as imperative, particularly as NATO’s traditional reliance on US support appears increasingly uncertain.
The reported potential for Russia to agree to utilize up to $300 billion of frozen assets for Ukraine's reconstruction could be pivotal. Sources indicated Russia might insist, though, on allocating portions of these funds toward territories under its control, as well as the necessity of conditions relating to the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. The World Bank has previously estimated the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine at around $486 billion and this funding would play an integral role.
While discussions remain preliminary, the concept of leveraging frozen assets for reconstruction signifies possible flexibility from Moscow as it acknowledges the catastrophic damages inflicted throughout Ukraine. At the same time, mistrust lingers, with Russian officials advocating for accountability guarantees once discussions of asset allocation and use for rebuilding are broached.
With the momentum gathered from the Riyadh talks, the question remains: will this spark enough willpower from both sides to establish concrete terms for negotiating peace, or will it dwindle under the weight of complex geopolitical realities? The specter of continued conflict looms large, especially with military buildup on both sides presenting potential volatility.
For now, the diplomatic window appears somewhat ajar, yet the challenge of establishing long-lasting and reliable agreements continues to be fraught with hurdles as both nations navigate these treacherous waters.
The urgency to finalize discussions and achieve tangible progress may never have been more pronounced, underscoring the need for both US and European stakeholders to remain vigilant and proactive as scenarios develop.