A recent study has shed light on the complex interplay between key agricultural components and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly within China, one of the world’s largest emitters. Utilizing data from 1990 to 2020, the research employs both linear and non-linear models to ascertain how variables such as agricultural land usage, fertilizer consumption, energy employed for agriculture, and production of crops and livestock impact emissions.
Agriculture is increasingly recognized as both vulnerable to and responsible for climate change, contributing approximately 17% to China’s total GHG emissions. Understanding and mitigating the environmental footprint of agricultural practices is urgent, with China’s GHG emissions estimated at 12.3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) for 2020 alone. These emissions are primarily attributable to nitrous oxide (N₂O) from nitrogen-based fertilizers, methane (CH₄) from livestock, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) from fossil fuel utilization.
The study focuses on dynamic relationships between agricultural factors, analyzing the elasticity and co-integrations of various inputs. Key findings reveal significant positive impacts of increased agricultural land and fertilizer consumption on GHG emissions. Specifically, each percentage increase in agricultural land correlates with GHG emissions rising by 0.187%, and fertilizer consumption increases emissions by 0.463% for each percentage rise. Conversely, reductions in these areas can lead to immediate decreases in emissions, emphasizing the need for policies focused on sustainable agriculture.
Researchers applied econometric models such as the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) to identify both linear and asymmetric effects of these variables. The results indicated not just direct relationships but also reflected how positive and negative shocks can differently influence long-term emissions trajectories. For example, adverse shocks to agricultural land can reduce emissions significantly, highlighting the opportunity for policy intervention.
Interestingly, forest land was found to have a negative correlation with GHG emissions. Each increase of 1% in forest land is associated with a reduction of GHG emissions by 0.825%, showcasing the potential role of afforestation and forest management as strategies to combat emissions. The research suggests immediate policy directions for Chinese authorities, pointing out the urgency for enhancing forest land and shifting to renewable energy practices.
The study contributes to the body of knowledge by emphasizing the need for integrating agricultural practices within broader environmental management frameworks. It warns against over-reliance on chemical fertilizers and advocates for practices such as crop rotation to promote soil health and reduce dependency on harmful inputs.
Looking forward, policymakers are encouraged to bolster sustainable practices within agriculture, establish monitoring systems for carbon emissions, and promote greener energy alternatives. The integration of sustainable practices can mitigate emissions effectively and address the pressing challenges induced by climate change.
Overall, the research presents valuable insights for enhancing agricultural sustainability and combating GHG emissions, illustrating how fundamental this sector is to China’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.