The fluctuations of the Ukrainian hryvnia against major foreign currencies have been at the forefront of economic discussions as of mid-March 2025. On March 17, the average purchase price of the dollar across banks was reported at 41.27 hryvnias, up by 2 kopecks from March 14. Conversely, the selling price of the dollar was noted at 41.82 hryvnias, down by 3 kopecks, according to 24 Kanal.
Similarly, for the euro, the figures show purchasing rates at 44.90 hryvnias, climbing by 8 kopecks, with selling rates settling at 45.45 hryvnias, reflecting a decline of 5 kopecks. This interchange of value highlights the dynamic nature of currency exchange within the country.
On the black market, the exchange rate for the dollar averaged 41.57 hryvnias, showing a drop of 3 kopecks, whereas the selling price registered at 41.54 hryvnias, down 10 kopecks. For euros, the buying rate hovered around 45.10 hryvnias, with the selling price at 45.24 hryvnias, indicating no change.
Exchange office rates for dollars fell to about 41.06 hryvnias for purchases and 41.68 hryvnias for sales. The euro was bought at 45.10 hryvnias and sold at 45.42 hryvnias, providing more insights on market performance as reported by finance.ua.
Banking expert Tars Lesovoy predicted for the week of March 17-23, 2025, the dollar would see its exchange rate range between 41.40 to 42 hryvnias, whereas the euro is expected to fluctuate between 44.50 and 45.50 hryvnias. Lesovoy mentioned, "Substantial changes aren't anticipated this week," reiterally stating the stability of the rates amid global economic shifts.
Over the past month, from mid-February to mid-March, the hryvnia has noticeably strengthened against the dollar, with the official exchange rate seeing decreases by approximately 1.4%, moving from 42.02 hryvnias to about 41.43 hryvnias per dollar. This decline reflects the challenges posed by current global economic conditions, including rising domestic inflation fueled by existing trade wars influenced by shifting political agendas.
On March 17, 2025, significant shifts were noted as the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) set the official dollar exchange rate at 41.44 hryvnias, strengthening by 7 kopecks. Correspondingly, the official euro exchange rate also decreased to 45.16 hryvnias, marking another gain of 7 kopecks compared to previous values.
Meanwhile, on the interbank currency market, rates established for the dollar fluctuated between 41.49 to 41.52 UAH/dollar by the end of the day, reflecting minor adjustments as compared to the closing values on the previous Friday.
By March 18, continuing this trend, the cash dollar exchange rate across banks saw minimal alterations, with reports indicating rates averaged around 41.80 hryvnias. Interestingly, the euro's cash exchange rate saw similar decreases, maintaining figures around 45.45 hryvnias. PrivatBank, one of the leading banks, registered dollar rates at 41.69 hryvnias, specific for purchases, having decreased only by 1 kopeck, whereas the euro rate established was about 45.50 hryvnias.
It is also insightful to note the health of Ukraine's banking sector, where last year, 2024, the total income for the ten largest banks accrued more than 267 billion UAH, illustrating a notable growth of 14% from the previous year. Despite the economic turmoil, these figures denote resilience within the banking industry, highlighting its adaptation to the external economic conditions.
Analysis of recent trends suggests the hryvnia may strengthen slightly against the dollar, stabilizing at lower rates which could provide more predictable environments for businesses and consumers alike. The current political discourse and economic reforms are directed toward maintaining stability, potentially paving the way for continued strength of the hryvnia against pivotal currencies.
Given these circumstances, market actors and consumers are advised to monitor the active rates closely and remain informed on the prospective declarations from the National Bank of Ukraine which influence the financial terrain within the country.
