Vladimir Putin exuded confidence during his recent press conference, indicating he believes both the war in Ukraine is nearing its conclusion, and the international community's focus is shifting. Speaking to journalists on December 19, 2024, the Russian President expressed concern, though, about finding appropriate partners to discuss peace, particularly with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump. Putin's apparent optimism about military successes contrasts sharply with his frustrations over the stalemate on diplomatic fronts. He implied Ukraine has already lost the war, exacerbated by Russia’s formidable military actions, including the recent strike on Dnipro with the new ballistic missile Oreshnik, leaving him assertive about his military's capabilities.
Throughout the press briefing, Putin lamented the current state of European leadership, claiming nations, especially Germany, have forfeited their sovereignty. He expressed nostalgia for what he deemed stronger European leaders of the past, contending they had genuine agency when engaging with Russia over Ukraine. Despite being ready to negotiate, he explicitly rejected discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, deeming his administration illegitimate.
Conversely, Zelensky is actively seeking international support during the two-day European Summit held at the EU Council on December 18-19. During discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, the two leaders assessed key priorities, focusing on strengthening Ukraine’s air defense and exploring the introduction of peacekeeping forces. Zelensky has made it clear he views reliable security guarantees as pivotal to any potential peace.
“We also see we need reliable guarantees for peace,” Zelensky stated, recognizing the importance of establishing international protections as discussions of peacekeeping troops gain traction. This mirrors Macron's long-standing push for European military presence as stabilization forces, considering how Trump's different approach might alter the dynamics of these negotiations.
Reports revealed Trump prefers European forces to monitor any possible ceasefire agreement—a shift reflecting his upcoming administration's potential foreign policy priorities. During his meeting with Zelensky and Macron, Trump hinted at needing strong European involvement moving forward, underlining the importance of cohesive international support for Ukraine.
The situation grows even more complex with increasing involvement from North Korea. Recent reports from South Korea indicated Pyongyang plans to bolster troop numbers and supply weapons to Russia. This development has raised alarm bells for Ukraine, especially with Zelensky asserting Ukraine would deliver a “tangible response” to this military collaboration.
Within this multifaceted geopolitical backdrop, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico's recent meetings with Putin highlight the varying stances among European leaders. Fico, one of the few EU leaders engaging with Putin since the Russian invasion began, has shifted Slovakia’s position to align more closely with Kremlin interests, pulling back from previous support for Ukraine.
Fico’s discussions with Putin, which included dialogue about Russian gas supplies, signal not only Slovakia's dependence on these resources but also reveal the fracture lines within the EU in response to the invasion. The Slovak leader's moves risk alienation from broader European consensus, especially as Ukraine insists on NATO membership for security as they navigate the conflict.
“The meeting was ‘in response to’ Zelensky’s opposition against gas transit through Ukraine,” Fico stated, showcasing the delicate balance European leaders must navigate, with energy dependencies weighing heavily on their political decisions.
Despite these divergences, consensus on the need to resolve the conflict remains, albeit with different interpretations of what peace entails. Putin has laid out conditions for negotiations, returning to proposals initially discussed during 2022 talks, which sought to strip Ukraine of NATO aspirations and curtail its military capabilities.
Listeners of Putin's end-of-year address noted his contradictory remarks on negotiations, particularly concerning the recognition of Ukraine under Zelensky's administration. Putin reiterated his rejection to negotiate with current Ukrainian leadership, forwarding notions of engaging with either Ukraine's parliament or potential future leaders.
While Russia seems content to push for advantageous negotiations, the reality on the ground remains increasingly dynamic. Ukraine's military successes—including regaining territories lost to Russian advances—complicate Putin's narrative of assured victory. The introduction of international actors like North Korea only escalates tensions, prompting strong reactions from the already cautious Ukrainian leadership.
After months of struggle, the central question looms: can both sides set aside mutual antagonisms to work toward genuine peace? The odds certainly feel stacked against it, with Putin’s visible eagerness for control and Zelensky’s insistence on Western backings leading to more complicated paths to dialogue.
Europe now finds itself at a crossroads, trying to navigate these precarious negotiations with the shifting roles of Trump and other international leaders entering the fray. The future of Ukraine may well depend on how effectively the West can present unified and pragmatic approaches addressing both Ukrainian needs and Russian demands.
