Ukraine And Russia Report Significant Agricultural Exports

As of March 26, 2025, Ukraine has made significant strides in its agricultural exports during the 2024-2025 marketing year, shipping a total of 32.214 million tons of grain and leguminous crops. This figure includes 3.032 million tons exported since the beginning of March 2025, according to a report from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, which cited data from the State Customs Service.

In comparison, the total shipments by this time last year, on March 27, 2024, were slightly higher at 34.199 million tons, with March alone contributing 4.529 million tons. The breakdown of exports this season reveals that Ukraine has exported 12.912 million tons of wheat, down from 13.504 million tons in the previous marketing year. Barley exports have seen a modest increase, reaching 2.196 million tons compared to 1.957 million tons last year, while rye exports have risen to 10.8 thousand tons from just 1 thousand tons. Corn remains a staple export, with 16.621 million tons shipped, although this is a decrease from the 18.447 million tons exported in the 2023-2024 season.

Additionally, the total export of Ukrainian flour since the start of the season is estimated at 52.8 thousand tons, a decline from 78.1 thousand tons in the previous year. This includes 48.9 thousand tons of wheat flour, which also shows a reduction from 74 thousand tons.

Meanwhile, Russia is projecting a substantial increase in its meat exports, with the head of the Russian Agricultural Supervision Authority, Sergey Dankvert, stating that the country could export up to 1 million tons of meat products in 2025. This projection includes various meat products, processed goods, and by-products. In 2024, Russia managed to supply about 860 thousand tons of meat to international markets, which is a significant achievement given the current global market conditions.

As of March 21, 2025, pork exports have surged to 60.5 thousand tons, a notable increase from 32.3 thousand tons the previous year. This includes 10.7 thousand tons of pork products shipped to China, excluding Hong Kong. However, Dankvert cautioned that several risks could impact these optimistic projections. He highlighted the fluctuating dollar exchange rate, which can affect export viability, especially when the ruble strengthens, making Russian products less competitive.

Moreover, Dankvert raised concerns about the worsening situation regarding foot-and-mouth disease in Europe and the potential risks of importing dangerous diseases from Ukraine, where the epidemiological situation is reportedly uncontrolled. "This leads us to be in a risk zone," he stated, emphasizing the need for vigilance in maintaining export standards.

In a related development, analysts at SovEcon have adjusted their forecast for Russian wheat exports for the 2024-2025 marketing year, lowering it to 40.7 million tons from an earlier estimate of 42.2 million tons made in February. This downward revision reflects the sluggish pace of shipments amid low export margins, which have been negative since late 2024. For the first eight months of the season, Russia exported 32.6 million tons of wheat, down from 33.8 million tons during the same period last year.

In February, wheat exports were recorded at 1.9 million tons, a decrease from 2.3 million tons in February 2024, and significantly below the five-year average for that month of 4.1 million tons. The challenging export conditions are attributed to low profitability, with margins for exporters remaining negative compared to $5-10 per ton in the previous fall. The rapid strengthening of the ruble has further complicated export activities, as adjustments to export duties based on currency movements often lag, putting traders at a disadvantage.

On a more positive note, SovEcon has increased its forecast for Russian barley exports to 3.5 million tons, up from 3.3 million tons previously, and for corn to 2.8 million tons from 2.6 million tons. Overall, the total export of grains, legumes, and processed products is now estimated at 49.9 million tons, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 51 million tons.

In a separate agricultural development, the Volgograd region has also reported success in its safflower exports, with over 1.1 thousand tons shipped abroad since the beginning of 2025. This crop, known for its oil and natural dyes, has gained popularity not only within Russia but also in international markets, including Vietnam and Thailand. Experts have tested 64 samples of this crop, confirming that all batches meet the import requirements of these countries.

Last year, nearly 20 thousand hectares in the Volgograd region were dedicated to safflower cultivation, reflecting a growing trend towards alternative crops in agricultural rotations. The region's commitment to diversifying its agricultural output is evident as local farmers continue to focus on innovative crops that can thrive in varying market conditions.

As the agricultural landscape in both Ukraine and Russia continues to evolve amid global challenges, the focus remains on adaptability and responsiveness to market demands. The outcomes of these efforts will be closely monitored as both nations seek to enhance their positions in the competitive global agricultural market.