Trzaskowski Leads Polish Presidential Race But Faces Challenges

As the Polish presidential elections approach, the latest poll results reveal a shifting landscape among the candidates vying for the highest office in the country. Conducted by Opinia24 for TVN24, the survey shows that Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate from the Civic Coalition (KO), remains in the lead with 32% of the vote. However, this marks a slight decline of 1 percentage point from previous surveys.

In second place is Karol Nawrocki, backed by the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), who has seen a significant rise in support, now at 26%, which is an increase of 4 percentage points. Sławomir Mentzen, representing the Confederation, holds the third position with 15% of the vote, maintaining his previous standing.

The poll indicates that while Trzaskowski retains his lead, his support has been gradually decreasing, a trend worth noting as the election date draws near. Nawrocki's surge in popularity suggests a growing competitiveness, raising questions about whether he can close the gap further in the coming weeks.

In the broader context, the survey reflects a decrease in undecided voters, with only 1% of respondents currently unsure of their choice, a significant drop from 10% in the last poll. This shift could indicate a more engaged electorate as the candidates ramp up their campaigns.

Other candidates in the poll include Szymon Hołownia from the Third Way who garnered 6% support, an increase of 1 percentage point, and Adrian Zandberg from the Left Party with 5%, unchanged from previous figures. Grzegorz Braun and Magdalena Biejat both secured 4% support, with Biejat's numbers rising by 2 percentage points. Krzysztof Stanowski received 2%, a decrease of 1 point, while Joanna Senyszyn and Marek Jakubiak each received 1%.

The election is scheduled for May 18, 2025, with a potential second round on June 1, 2025. The dynamics of the race are expected to evolve as candidates engage in debates and public discussions, which could further influence voter sentiment.

In a hypothetical second round matchup between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, the poll indicates that Trzaskowski would still have the upper hand, projected to receive 51% of the votes compared to Nawrocki's 45%. This reflects a slight increase in Trzaskowski's support from previous polling data, where he had 44% against Nawrocki's 38%.

As the campaigns progress, both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will likely focus on key issues that resonate with voters. Security, the economy, and healthcare remain at the forefront of public concern, and how each candidate addresses these topics could significantly impact their electoral fortunes.

Despite the current polling landscape, the elections are still weeks away, and the potential for shifts in voter sentiment remains high. The candidates' performances in upcoming debates and their ability to connect with the electorate will be crucial in determining the final outcome.

In summary, the latest survey results underscore the competitive nature of the 2025 presidential elections in Poland, with Trzaskowski leading but facing increased pressure from Nawrocki. As the election date approaches, all eyes will be on the candidates as they seek to sway undecided voters and solidify their support base.