US-Mexico relations have taken on a new layer of tension with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, as the president has reaffirmed his administration's strategy of imposing tariffs aimed at pressuring Mexico and Canada. This renewed focus stems from Trump's dissatisfaction with both countries’ responses to the fentanyl crisis and illegal immigration. On March 4, 2025, tariffs reaching 25% on Mexican products are scheduled to be enacted if there are no significant changes from either government. Trump's stance is clear: neither the United States nor Canada has done enough to curb the illegal trafficking of fentanyl.
Following Trump’s announcement, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum urged her counterparts to maintain composure. She expressed the need for reasoned dialogue and even requested a phone call with Trump to address these urgent issues. Meanwhile, high-ranking Mexican officials met last week with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss coordinated actions against organized crime, which disproportionately affects both nations. The Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed various agreed actions would soon be implemented to combat illegal drug trafficking and offer safer border security.
Commenting on this complex scenario, Abelardo Rodríguez Sumano, PhD in international relations, labelled the current state of affairs as potentially the worst diplomatic crisis since the Mexican Revolution. He emphasized the wider policy ramifications, stating, "We are talking about the worst crisis since the Mexican Revolution. Not only diplomatically but also concerning national security and defense." Rodríguez highlighted Trump's unilateral approach conflicts with traditional international cooperation frameworks, raising concerns over sovereignty.
Historical analysis reveals the longstanding tensions between Mexico and the United States, marked by events such as Pancho Villa's raid on Columbus, New Mexico, as well as the periods of 'good neighbor' policies aimed at fostering cooperation. Yet, the modern relationship is increasingly influenced by enforcement and punitive strategies rather than collaborative agreements. The tensions peaked with the assassination of DEA agent Enrique Camarena, which pushed both countries to establish more stringent operational rules for US agents working within Mexico.
This time, Sheinbaum's administration is responding strategically to Trump’s tariffs through military and policing reinforcement at the border. The Mexican government deployed 10,000 members of the National Guard to reduce drug smuggling and illegal firearm trafficking, particularly focusing on harmful substances like fentanyl. The extradition last week of 29 alleged drug traffickers to the United States, including notorious figures like Rafael Caro Quintero, signified Mexico’s commitment to tackle organized crime seriously.
Rodríguez pointed out this administration’s pivot toward "coercive diplomacy" rather than enhancing North American integration, something originally promoted by the North American Free Trade Agreement (now under the T-MEC). He remarked, "The administration Trump is conducted on various bands. On one side coordinating with Mexico, but on the other side, they are elevaging the threats of the possibility of breaking this collaboration. "
On February 20, Trump designated several Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, which has sparked fears of direct military intervention. Sheinbaum responded by proposing constitutional reforms to strengthen Mexico’s sovereignty. She firmly stated, "Mexico under no circumstances will accept interventions, intrusions, or any other act from abroad.” This clarion call emphasizes the emphasis on collaboration without compromise of national dignity.
With regards to international trade, Mexico now finds itself caught between US demands and opportunities from China. The T-MEC complicates Mexico’s capacity to seek independent agreements with other prominent markets, particularly as the US pressures Mexico to distance itself from China amid growing geopolitical tensions.
Despite the roadblocks posed by US-Mexico relations under Trump’s administration, many experts argue Mexico must pursue balanced trade relations with both nations. Ignoring the potential of the Chinese market could hamper Mexico’s long-term economic stability. José Gerardo Tajonar, president of the National Association of Importers and Exporters of Mexico (ANIERM), emphasized the importance of not allowing external pressures to dictate sovereignty over trade decisions.
Considering the pressing dynamics, both nations are poised for possible escalations, especially following Trump’s previous record during his initial tenure with unpredictable tariffs and trade rules. Mexican policymakers are preparing for various scenarios, including plans A, B, C, and D, depending on the outcome of the impending tariff decisions.
Claudia Sheinbaum, during her daily briefing, articulated the necessity for steadfastness and patience amid these negotiations. "The decision on tariffs is with Trump; we will be ready with our plans depending on his actions, and unity will prevail within Mexico," she stated, framing the uncertainties as yet another chapter within the historically fluctuated US-Mexico relations. It appears these relationship dynamics will need careful navigation as the world watches how this high-stakes situation evolves.