At the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) meeting held this week, panelists engaged in deep discussions about the potential impacts of Donald Trump’s second term on U.S.-Africa relations, exploring the avenues through which economic, diplomatic, and security relations could either strengthen or weaken.
The panel was moderated by Shannon Smith, research manager for the Congressional Research Service, who introduced pivotal figures including the Honorable Johnnie Carson, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Cameron Hudson, senior associate for the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Ebenezer Obadare, Douglas Dillon senior fellow for Africa studies at CFR.
One of the significant issues on the agenda was the humanitarian crisis facing Sudan, which has escalated dramatically, affecting millions. Hordes of citizens are displaced due to the violent conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces militia. Cameron Hudson remarked, "Washington has strategic interests and untapped leverage in Sudan... Trump uniquely positioned to advance solutions to end the war," highlighting the urgent need for intervention.
Carson elaborated, emphasizing, "The magnitude of the problem" is unprecedented, dubbing it one of the most severe humanitarian crises globally. He indicated the U.S.'s imperative role is clear as the country grapples with conflicts within Sudan. Carson also stated the need for leaders to devise long-term solutions including appointing new special envoys and leveraging partnerships with African nations.
Shifting focus to West Africa, Obadare articulated the complex political turmoil resulting from military coups, along with the Russian influence rising throughout the region. He pointed out, "The region faces long-term political destabilization due to decades-long Islamic insurgency," calling for the U.S. to recognize and address these challenges through supportive diplomacy. He stressed the need for America to promote democratic values but also to maintain relationships across the board with multiple partners, particularly as anti-French sentiments rise.
Panelists noted Trump’s prior isolationist policies, drawing attention to his previous “America First” approach during his first term. Richard Muponda from Zimpapers articulated, "Trump’s presidency coincides with the increasing influence of China," indicating the high stakes of retaining U.S. relevance on the continent. He pointed out Trump’s tendency to prioritize economic diplomacy over developmental aid, thereby possibly transforming Africa’s role as "a new battleground for resource access and exploitation."
This battleground notion emerged against the backdrop of Trump's proposed economic treaties, aimed at increasing American market access to African nations. Panelists expressed cautious optimism, believing the competitive edge against China could bolster U.S. investment across strategic sectors like technology and agriculture.
Experts cautioned, though, against inflated expectations of President Trump’s commitment to Africa, considering his focus on domestic issues. Nevertheless, the discussions brimmed with the recognition of immense potential: as the continent’s economy grows and the youth demographic yield strong markets, African nations have much to offer the U.S.
Carson highlighted the necessity of viewing Africa as more than simply another theater for power play against China, stating, "We should look at them as partners." He urged the need for clarity on mutual interests, bolstering the notion of cooperation over confrontation, which could yield substantial benefits for both sides.
Concluding the session, panelists reiterated the idea of active engagement. A durable partnership could address pressing global challenges ranging from climate change to security cooperation against terrorism. Analysts believe recognizing the efficacy of local partnerships could also significantly boost U.S. influence back on the ground—as Trump returns, what happens next for Africa will depend heavily on the balance struck between national interests and genuine support for African stability.