Donald Trump's presidential victory is stirring the pot with longstanding debates about the Gaza conflict, sending ripples of uncertainty through ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The intense fighting has claimed over 43,000 lives since it erupted last October, when Hamas's surprise attack killed around 1,200 people and left many more taken hostage. Now, individuals living within and outside the afflicted region are left questioning what Trump's win signifies for their future.
For months, analysts had speculated whether U.S. presidential elections would affect the dynamics of the conflict, with many anticipating little-to-no significant progress until after Trump's inauguration set for January. According to Michael Stephens from the Royal United Services Institute, "Why would [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu give Biden anything now?" The latter had already faced challenges as multiple ceasefire proposals floundered due to irreconcilable demands from both sides.
Beyond the immediate question of conflict resolution, the potential of Trump's presidency to impact on-the-ground realities is worth examining. Trump's campaign rhetoric has made bold proclamations: promising to "end the war" and issuing warnings to Hamas about consequences if hostages are not released before his inauguration. Yet experts remain skeptical about what these promises might realistically translate to. Shira Efron, director of policy research at the Israel Policy Forum, points out the complexity of the situation, emphasizing how definitions of "war" and "end" remain ambiguous. "The intensive fighting, it ended months ago. What we have now is counterinsurgency," she remarked.
Indeed, the conflict has morphed significantly over time, leading Efron to speculate whether Trump could accept continued Israeli military operations under the guise of "ending the war." Mark Dubowitz, president of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, noted Trump's likely expectations—namely, major ground operations against adversaries like Hamas and possibly even Hezbollah. “I don’t think the incoming Trump administration is under any delusions... I think what [Trump is] talking about are major ground operations,” he asserted.
Notably, there's immense pressure on Netanyahu, whose administration faces scrutiny from both foreign and domestic fronts. Foreshadowing the challenges, Trump has publicly expressed his expectation of peace deals being made during his presidency. During his campaign, he similarly stated to audiences of Arab-Americans, “You can expect peace in the Middle East if I become president,” implying hope for broader regional stability. But will Netanyahu pursue peace or continue military actions? Based on current behaviors, opinions vary. Offir Gutelzon, whose group protests Netanyahu’s government, insists, "I honestly don’t know what Trump can do... the main block for the hostage deal is Netanyahu and his government.”
While the incoming administration may attempt to pivot away from Biden's strategic priorities, the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations remains close at hand. These countries have made clear their reluctance to promote peace initiatives amid the Gaza conflict, insisting: “You can’t have Abraham Accords 2.0 if Israel is at war.”
Shifting focus back to Gaza, local sentiments are rife with skepticism. Gazans often feel apprehensive about significant political change, holding differing opinions on Trump's role. While some believe he may bring about solutions, others are doubtful, voicing concerns about the American political direction leading to more turmoil. The atmosphere is thick with uncertainty, as analysts predict any softenings of Netanyahu's approach to ceasefire efforts would likely not surface until the new administration settles after January.
Looking to the future, the reality remains tense. Families of hostages have urged for unity between political arms to secure the safe return of their loved ones. “This is not just about politics,” they cautioned, “this is an urgent, catastrophic humanitarian crisis.” With both Trump and Netanyahu faced with mounting pressures, the efficacy of their decisions surrounding the war remains to be seen. Will their efforts lead to resolution? Or are they destined to intensify hostilities and prolong suffering?
Whatever the path forward may hold, the disparate views of political analysts, activists, and Gazans reveal one truth: the road to peace remains fraught with uncertainties, many of which hinge on Trump’s actions and strategic decisions post-inauguration.
