Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the recent U.S. presidential election has sent ripples of excitement across Israel, particularly among its far-right factions. Almost immediately after receiving news of his win, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir celebrated on social media, proclaiming his delight with the message "Yesssss," accompanied by American and Israeli flag emojis. Such sentiments echo across the Knesset, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to follow suit, congratulating Trump on what he termed as history’s greatest comeback. This reaction, framed as a reaffirmation of the strong U.S.-Israel alliance, reflects the mutual anticipation of solidifying ties once again under Trump’s leadership.
Polling data leading up to the election showed overwhelming support for Trump among voters in Israel, with nearly 65% preferring him over his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, whom many perceived as too lenient and occasionally harsh toward Israel’s actions, particularly during the conflict with Gaza. For Jewish respondents, the leaning was even more pronounced, with 72% favoring Trump. These statistics signify not just approval of Trump’s policies but also suggest broader political inclinations among Israelis and their growing alignment with Republican values.
Political analyst Mitchell Barak likened the moment to a "watershed moment," indicating widespread sentiment within Israel seeing Trump’s election as promising for the state's future military and diplomatic maneuvers. Trump is credited with having been Israel’s staunch ally during his previous term, recognizing Jerusalem as its capital and facilitating the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations with several Arab nations.
Under Trump's leadership, expectations mount again on what his administration may allow Netanyahu to do, especially with regards to his contentious approach to the Gaza strip and West Bank territories. During Trump's first tenure, he embraced policies favoring Israeli settlements and sought to legitimize territories previously contested. Such policies have led many commentators to speculate whether Trump's re-election will officially terminate the already tenuous discussions surrounding the two-state solution.
Contrastingly, the Biden administration has maintained the two-state solution as official policy, albeit faced with complexity due to current developments. Just weeks before Trump's win, Biden reiterated his administration’s commitment to achieving such peace; Trump, conversely hinted at doubts about the feasibility of this approach, openly challenging long-standing U.S. foreign policy norms.
The newly re-elected president's past statements hint at continued advocacy for settlement expansion, solidifying Israeli claims to contested areas, and possibly renewing support for the annexation of the West Bank, themes expected to resonate with his far-right supporters back home.
Notably, one additional complexity arises from the changing dynamics among various voter demographics. Throughout his campaign, Trump captured the interest not only of right-leaning Jews but also of Arab voters, particularly those who were disillusioned with the Biden administration's unwavering support for Israel throughout its war with Hamas. Arab Americans, especially outraged by the continuous violence against civilians, seemed to hope for any shift away from 'war' under Trump's hawkish policies.
These new unlikely coalitions—Arab Americans joining forces with right-leaning Jewish groups—have created palpable tension. Although Trump has captured some Arab votes, it remains uncertain whether this newfound alignment will hold under real-world pressures. Supporters from both sides hold divergent expectations from the president, highlighting inherent mistrust between the groups.
For Israeli settlers, Trump's return signifies relief from perceived threats posed by Biden's administration, particularly concerning possible sanctions against settlement expansion. They recall moments during Biden's presidency when settlements faced renewed scrutiny and potential repercussions.
Political analysts are cautious about the potential for Trump’s policies to unintentionally become erratic, recalling moments within his previous administration where intentions didn’t align perfectly with outcomes. And this unpredictability weighs heavily on the minds of many backers.
Between Netanyahu's coalition aiming for aggressive military strategies, Trump’s historical support for Israel, and the Biden administration's stay-the-course attempts for peace, the stage is set for challenging negotiations and, perhaps, heightened conflicts. Observers have noted—both the potential for escalated tensions globally and complex political dynamics locally will greatly influence how American and Israeli policies evolve.
From expectations of slaughtering enemies less heavily criticized under Trump, to potential resolutions of longstanding grievances among Arab communities, the changing political winds kept Americans and Israelis closely monitoring developments. Trump's electoral victory may choke off which way the foreign policy winds may blow next.
Despite this excitement brewing within segments of Israeli society, skepticism about diplomatic effectiveness lingers. Observers such as independent analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg note how said victory may solidify the hardline approach rather than seeking any form of compromise or dialogue, leaving expectations of peace growth starkly dimmer.
