Thailand's export sector has shown remarkable resilience, with March 2025 figures revealing a significant growth of 17.8%. This surge in exports, valued at $29.5 billion, marks the highest level recorded in the country’s history and the best performance in three years. The increase is attributed to heightened demand from key trading partners such as the United States, China, and the European Union, as they ramp up imports to mitigate potential impacts from rising tariffs.
On April 24, 2025, Mr. Phichai Naripthaphan, the Minister of Commerce, announced the impressive export figures during a press conference, emphasizing that this growth has been sustained for nine consecutive months and is significantly above market expectations, which had forecast a growth rate of only 10.7% to 13%. "This is a historic moment for Thailand, as we have surpassed $29 billion in exports for the first time," Mr. Phichai stated.
Imports also saw a boost, reaching $28.6 billion, an increase of 10.2%. This resulted in a trade surplus of $973 million for March 2025. Over the first three months of the year, total exports amounted to $81.5 billion, reflecting a 15.2% increase compared to the same period last year, while imports totaled $80.5 billion, marking a 7.4% rise.
According to the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS), the growth in exports is largely driven by industrial goods, particularly in the rubber, computer, and jewelry sectors. The increase in exports to major markets is a response to the global supply chain's adjustments as countries prepare for potential tariff hikes from the U.S., aimed at stabilizing production costs and mitigating future price increases.
Mr. Phichai expressed optimism about the outlook for April, despite potential challenges posed by U.S. tariff policies. He noted, "While we may face some impact from the U.S. tariffs, I do not anticipate that our export figures will turn negative. The Thai economy has seen significant investment recently, which I believe will positively influence our export performance. We expect continued growth, albeit possibly not at the same rate as March."
In a proactive move, the Ministry of Commerce is set to engage in discussions with the private sector on April 25, focusing on the implications of U.S. tariffs and exploring opportunities for Thai goods to fill the gaps left by Chinese products in the U.S. market. Mr. Phichai highlighted that crises often present opportunities, stating, "In every crisis, there are opportunities. Thailand's economy remains strong, and we can continue to move forward. If we can negotiate effectively with the U.S., I believe our exports will still see positive growth."
Mr. Phichai also mentioned the ongoing discussions with the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), emphasizing that the Thai government is committed to negotiating terms that minimize adverse impacts while maximizing potential benefits. "We have been in continuous contact with USTR and major U.S. companies. They recognize that Thailand has advantages that can facilitate our negotiations," he added.
Mr. Poonpong Niyomnaitham, Director of the OTPS, echoed Mr. Phichai’s sentiments, indicating that the outlook for Thai exports in the second quarter of 2025 is promising. He noted that the ongoing adjustments in global trade dynamics, particularly with U.S. tariffs set to take effect on July 9, could lead to increased imports in the months leading up to that date.
"April to June could see continued growth in exports, with the potential for double-digit growth in some months as countries rush to import goods in anticipation of tariff impacts," Mr. Poonpong stated. He cautioned, however, that the overall success will depend on how negotiations with key trading partners unfold.
Despite the positive trends in industrial exports, the agricultural sector has faced challenges. Agricultural exports have contracted for three consecutive months, with a 0.5% decrease noted in March. However, certain agricultural products, such as rubber and fresh fruits, continue to perform well.
In summary, Thailand's export sector is navigating a complex landscape shaped by global trade tensions and tariff policies. The remarkable growth in March serves as a testament to the resilience and adaptability of Thai exporters, while ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and other trading partners will be crucial in maintaining this momentum.
