The 2025 First Responder Bowl features the North Texas Mean Green facing off against the Texas State Bobcats on January 3, 2025, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. With kickoff set for 4:00 PM ET on ESPN, both teams have faced significant roster challenges as they prepare for this matchup.
The North Texas Mean Green enter this game with a 6-6 record, having scraped through the season with just enough victories to earn bowl eligibility. The team has seen considerable turnover due to the transfer portal, most glaringly the loss of starting quarterback Chandler Morris, who is now committed to Virginia. Morris was the cornerstone of North Texas’ offense, racking up 3,774 passing yards and 31 touchdowns this season. Without him, the Mean Green find themselves turning to true freshman Drew Mestemaker, who has thrown only five passes at the collegiate level. Such drastic changes raise questions about the team’s ability to move the ball effectively during the bowl game.
Texas State, with its impressive 7-5 record, is also not without challenges. Nonetheless, the Bobcats have remained more consistent compared to their counterparts, largely due to having key personnel intact. They will start the game as 13.5-point favorites, demonstrating confidence from bettors who see them as the stronger team on paper. Despite the loss of standout running back Ismail Mahdi, who is transferring to Arizona, Texas State's versatile quarterback Jordan McCloud, who threw for nearly 3,000 yards and scored 29 touchdowns this past season, leads the offense. He is supported by quality receivers like Joey Hobert and Jaden Williams, which gives the team strength against what has been one of the worst defenses nationally.
Betting lines for the game indicate the total points expected to be around 65.5. This might normally point to expectations of high-scoring action, but both teams will be missing pivotal offensive players, which suggests a potential change of pace. North Texas, with its wealth of injuries and opt-outs, managed to average only 20.5 points over their last four games. The betting trends backing the under seem warranted, and experts say North Texas could struggle to score without their top playmakers.
Analysts project Texas State to capitalize on North Texas' vulnerabilities effectively. With North Texas giving up over 34 points per game and allowing 456 yards on average, Texas State’s explosive offense has the opportunity to exploit these defensively challenged moments. The Bobcats ended the regular season on solid footing and will look to extend this momentum on the bowl stage.
While Texas State certainly carries the upper hand on paper, the unpredictability of bowl games due to player absences and team morale makes the outcome less certain. Both Texas State and North Texas have seen their rosters change dramatically within recent weeks, leading to cautious optimism from analysts. The spread opened less favorably for Texas State but has steadily shifted as the game day approached, signaling sharp betting interest.
Local and nationally recognized analysts believe the game's outcome may rely heavily on how well Texas State's offense can execute early on against North Texas' beleaguered defense. Ball control and effective scoring may pave the path for Texas State to pull away, asserting their dominance throughout the game against their long-time rivals.
Predictions lean toward Texas State covering the spread, with many favoring them to win comfortably due to North Texas' myriad issues. A score of Texas State 37, North Texas 16 appears to be trending among experts, focusing on the difficulties faced by the Mean Green and the Bobcats' recent success.