On March 19, 2025, the Texas Longhorns are set to clash against the Xavier Musketeers in a high-stakes First Four matchup of the NCAA Tournament at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Both teams enter the tournament with much on the line, as the winner will secure the 11-seed spot in the Midwest Region, facing the 6-seed Illinois in the next round. With Texas opening as a 2.5-point underdog, all eyes will be on these two teams battling for survival amidst the pressures of March Madness.
Xavier comes into this game with a record of 21 wins and 11 losses, having finished fifth in the Big East. Their recent tournament performance was marred by a disappointing 89-87 loss to Marquette in their last outing, where standout player Ryan Conwell scored 38 points. This performance, while impressive, showcased both the strengths and defensive weaknesses of the Musketeers.
Meanwhile, Texas, with a record of 19-15, limps into the tournament following an 83-72 defeat to Tennessee. The Longhorns have faced tough competition in the SEC, wrapping up their regular season with a 13th place finish. This tough schedule could be crucial as they take on a Xavier team that has had its own share of challenges.
BetMGM’s odds highlight Xavier as favorites primarily due to their free-throw shooting prowess. The sportsbook states, "Historically, NCAA Tournament favorites with a strong free-throw shooting percentage cover at a high rate. Since 2006, favorites with a conversion percentage between 77.2% and 82.2% are 39-15-1 ATS (72.2%) for a 38.6% return on investment." Given Xavier's robust free-throw shooting at 79.4% this season, it could play a key role in deciding this game.
Head coach Sean Miller, now in his second stint with Xavier since returning in 2022, leads a team that is not overly reliant on the three-pointer, yet still excels from beyond the arc, boasting an impressive 38.8% shooting rate which ranks 7th nationally. This effective shooting coupled with unselfish play—Xavier averages 16.9 assists per game, placing them 15th in Division I—demonstrates their offensive capabilities. They feature several players, including Conwell and versatile forward Zach Freemantle, who can not only score but also facilitate effective ball movement.
Conwell is particularly dangerous, averaging over 17 points and connecting on 41.8% of his three-point attempts while also managing to dish 2.5 assists per game. You can’t overlook Freemantle's impact as well; he consistently contributes a scoring threat while maintaining the ability to distribute the basketball effectively.
Conversely, Texas must focus on their defensive strategy if they hope to disrupt Xavier's offense. Despite having their fair share of defensive inconsistencies, with a tendency to allow bulky scoring nights from opponents, they have the opportunity to apply pressure on Xavier’s shooters. Analysts note that "it’s clear Xavier struggles defensively, this can be the competitive advantage that helps Texas" as they try to exploit any missteps in Xavier’s backcourt.
The Longhorns also have offensive potential, as evidenced by their capacity to put up points. Led by Kadin Shedrick, who scored 14 points against Tennessee, Texas averages 78.4 points per game this season. Their shooting has been slightly inconsistent, however, as they recently fell short of their typical scoring output; they must elevate their game to outpace the Musketeers. Texas is also adept at generating turnovers, a stat they will need to leverage to offset Xavier’s statistical advantages.
As the teams prepare to face off, various statistics illustrate a game that could be fiercely competitive. It remains to be seen which team will step up amidst the pressure of March Madness. Texas has proven to be a battle-tested squad, while Xavier will rely on their efficient offense and strong free-throw shooting. The outcome might hinge on how well each team holds up under the intense pressure of tournament play.
With predictions suggesting a close contest, Tony Sink forecasts a tight game and tips the scales in favor of Xavier, indicating, "Take Xavier (-4)." However, many fans and analysts believe this encounter could go either way, further amplifying the intrigue of this exciting tournament opener.
Fans ready to tune in can catch all the action at 9:10 PM ET on truTV, making sure not to miss this significant clash as the Longhorns and Musketeers vie for the coveted opportunity to advance into the heart of the NCAA Tournament.
