The recent Bürgerschaftswahl (Hamburg parliament election) on March 2, 2025, produced surprising results, reshaping the political tableau of this significant German city. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), under the leadership of Mayor Peter Tschentscher, emerged victorious yet noted substantial losses compared to previous elections.
The SPD secured 33.5% of the votes, representing a decline of 5.7 percentage points from five years ago. Despite this dip, the SPD maintained its position as the leading party, distancing itself from competitors.
Trailing behind the SPD was the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which, rallying under candidate Dennis Thering, increased its standings by 8.6 percentage points to reach 19.8%. This shift allowed the CDU to surpass the Greens, who garnered 18.5%—an unfortunate decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the last election.
The election results also showcased gains for the left-wing party Die Linke, rising to 11.2%, particularly popular among younger voters. Contrastingly, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) improved its standing to 7.5%, albeit still trailing behind its national average, highlighting the unique political dynamics at play within Hamburg.
For parties like the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the BSW party, the election marked disappointing outcomes. The FDP received just 2.3% of the votes, failing to pass the 5% threshold necessary for representation—its lowest score ever at the Bürgerschaft election. Similarly, BSW fell short with 1.7%, marking its first attempt to enter the Hamburg parliament as unsuccessful. Volt, meanwhile, performed modestly, securing 3.3%.
Voter participation was markedly higher than during the last election, with 67.7% of the eligible population casting their ballots, compared to 63% five years ago. Approximately 1.3 million eligible voters engaged, signaling increased political interest among the populace.
Following the results, Mayor Tschentscher indicated his intention to first converse with the Greens about coalition possibilities, before exploring discussions with the CDU. He expressed confidence, stating, "My top priority is to continue the red-green alliance," highlighting the perceived success of the governance style and policies implemented over recent years.
CDU leader Dennis Thering remained hopeful, noting, "We are prepared for coalition talks with the SPD," emphasizing the need for stability and positive changes particularly concerning security, economy, and transportation. The Greens' top candidate, Katharina Fegebank, expressed relief and optimism about potential coalition conversations, labeling the preceding collaboration as "a successful model" worthy of continuation.
While the SPD and Greens might form the likely government coalition once more, the results also reflect shifting allegiances among the electorate. According to political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte, the SPD's distinct positioning, separate from national trends affecting other governing parties, illustrated the appeal of Tschentscher's leadership.
The election saw Hamburg's unique ability to facilitate its own political environment evolve distinctly from broader German political trends, evidenced by the SPD's maintained stronghold. Observing the general drift, Korte noted, "This is evident from Hamburg's local response, signaling both resistance and evolution against national sentiments."
Now, as coalition discussions begin, the SPD, CDU, and Greens have the chance to reshape the future of Hamburg, which has proved resilient through varied political pressures. The question remains: how will these discussions translate to governance, policy, and perhaps, stability amid the shifting tide of public sentiment?