The economic and social outlook for Spain in 2025 presents both promising growth and challenging societal issues. The nation is projected to continue experiencing economic advancements, with the GDP growth for Aragón estimated at 3.0% for 2024, and subsequent growth rates of 2.2% and 1.8% forecasted for the following two years.
This uptick is primarily driven by domestic demand, influenced by falling inflation, decreasing interest rates, and rising wages, which are expected to boost employment. Interestingly, this growth rate surpasses the average growth between 1995 and 2019, which stood at 1.8%, and is almost four times higher than the recorded growth for the Eurozone at 0.8%.
Despite these optimistic projections, the unemployment rate remains concerning, potentially decreasing to 8.0% by 2026, with the prospect of creating 17,500 new jobs. Those figures indicate progress, yet the industrial sector faces significant uncertainty, driven by rising energy costs and diminishing demand within European markets.
On the social front, the portrait is less rosy. Spain's gender equality index, known as the Closingap index, demonstrates concerning trends. According to Lucila García, director general of Closingap, "La brecha de género se ha cerrado un 0,8% en el último año," emphasizing the slow progression toward gender parity, which might take until 2062 to achieve fully.
The index—which examines 28 variables spanning employment, education, health, and digitalization—shows the nation's gender gap currently sits at 65.7%, with the economic impact of closing this discrepancy estimated at €255 billion, representing around 17.1% of the national GDP for 2023.
Nevertheless, the report also highlights significant backtracking, particularly within the health and wellness categories, where it showed a 0.2% decline, primarily affecting women who are often more susceptible to poverty and exclusion social risks. Merely combating workplace inequalities could lead to substantial growth; yet, disparities persist.
Save the Children’s recent analysis paints another troubling picture: the increase of child poverty. The organization reveals one year later, nearly 11% of children are living in severe poverty—an increase from 10.8%, demonstrating the continuous struggle families with children face to meet basic living standards.
“Spain is the fourth largest economy within the European Union; yet, it ranks alarmingly as the second highest country with child poverty,” states Catalina Perazzo from Save the Children, stressing the dire necessity for actionable policies aimed at reversing these detrimental trends.
Further, the report indicates challenges particularly affecting single-parent households—81% of which are led by single mothers, highlighting the feminization of poverty and exacerbated financial strains. Although the severe poverty rate for these families has decreased slightly from 26.7% to 22.6%, it still indicates systemic inequalities challenge these households toward obtaining stable employment.
The combination of economic growth alongside persistent social inequalities raises significant questions about the sustainability of Spain's recovery efforts. Policymaking must aggressively bridge the gender gap and combat poverty, particularly for vulnerable populations like children and single mothers, to realize the full potential of its economic growth.
Spain’s 2025 economic forecast is marked by both hope and caution; continued progress may depend significantly on the government’s commitment to implementing policies addressing these pressing social disparities. Bridging the gender gap alongside empowering vulnerable families and children through effective social welfare policies could prove to be pivotal for shaping a more equitable future for the nation.