South Korea has officially entered the status of a super-aged society, marking December 23, 2024, as a pivotal date in its demographic evolution. This remarkable shift involves over 20% of the population being aged 65 or older, reportedly the fastest transition to this status globally, just 24 years after becoming an aging society and merely 7 years after exceeding the 14% threshold.
The aging trend is alarming, with projections indicating this proportion will rise by about 1% annually over the next decade. By 2045, approximately 37.3% of South Korea's population is expected to be elderly, overtaking Japan and positioning South Korea as the world’s oldest nation. This steep incline also includes the concerning surge of individuals reaching late 80s and beyond, forecasting one-in-five people to fall within this age demographic by 2050—a staggering increase of 15.8 times compared to the year 2000. For reference, the similar demographic shift for OECD countries saw just 3.4 times growth during the same period.
Such rapid aging presents multiple challenges for South Korea, described by experts as resembling an "unexpected tsunami." These challenges predominantly affect the economic and social structures, particularly as the working-age population shrinks and the demands on health and pension systems balloon. Early estimates suggest substantial financial burdens are already on the rise: for every additional year of life expectancy, the nation incurs roughly 112 trillion won (approximately $83 billion) in new salary expenditures related to health insurance and pensions.
It is anticipated by 2040, the average life expectancy will increase to 87.2 years — yielding another potential 324 trillion won burden. This potential scenario poses dire questions about the sustainability of South Korea's social safety nets, already on shaky ground due to low growth rates coupled with high elderly care demands.
To counteract these trends, experts, including Joo Hyunghwan, Vice Chairman of the Low Fertility and Aging Society Committee, are advocating for urgent reforms. "The only way to break through this is to complete a 'social model'..." he stated, emphasizing streamlined and effective systems to manage pensions and long-term care without sacrificing support for individuals. To achieve this aim, it is deemed necessary to innovate the existing social model to achieve financial sustainability, representing the first element of potential strategies.
There is hope on the horizon, as South Korea's safety nets are not yet as rigidly established as Europe's, allowing for more adaptive reforms. This flexibility offers opportunities to embrace new growth models, particularly through the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and biotechnology. Such advancements aim to reallocate resources, leveraging the potential of over 700,000 young NEETs (individuals who are not engaged academically, employed, or job searching) to invigorate the economy.
For South Korea, recognizing the immediate needs imposed by its demographic transformation is pressing. With the future riding on how effectively these social and economic systems can be reformed and integrated, proactive measures will be pivotal for safeguarding future well-being. While past population trends cannot be changed, the nation could pivot toward strategies ensuring its aging society does not languish under financial and systemic burdens.
Implementing inclusive policies and maximizing the skills of its youth through intelligent workforce strategies stands as the guiding light toward maintaining the stability of South Korea’s society as the population ages beyond the immediate future.