Recent developments surrounding Saudi-Israeli relations have added layer upon layer of complexity to the ever-evolving dynamics between the two nations, alongside the wider geopolitical shifts rippling through the Middle East. The backdrop of this tense atmosphere is marked by the catastrophic violence between Israel and Hamas, which erupted dramatically on October 7, 2023, and has since escalated chaos and carnage across the Gaza Strip, leaving over 43,000 Palestinians dead and igniting fury within the Arab world.
What began as discussions hinting at potential normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv has now all but stalled. Initially, the outlook seemed relatively sunny for Saudi-Israeli relations, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) expressing optimism about advancing ties. Just weeks before the outbreak of violence, he stated, "Every day we get closer" to normalization with Israel during remarks to Fox News. This optimism was not unfounded, as substantial groundwork had been laid during prior discussions, not to mention the prior successes of the Abraham Accords.
Yet, the dramatic events of October 7 have dramatically shifted the political terrain. The uprising led by Hamas, purportedly aimed not only at inflicting damage on Israel but also at derailing the normalization process, appears to have succeeded. Following the violence, MBS and other Saudi officials began emphasizing the need for serious progress on the Palestinian issue as the condition for any normalization.
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan has made statements indicating normalization is now "off the table, emphasizing the requirement for actionable steps toward Palestinian statehood. The recently convened Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit, hosted by MBS, culminated in what some are calling the strongest rebuke of Israel to date, highlighting what he termed the "genocide" against Palestinians. This unmistakable use of the term epitomizes the depth of ire across the Arab world.
The summit’s resolution even went as far as recommending the suspension of Israel’s membership at the United Nations, juxtaposing Israeli treatment of Palestinians against the perceived necessity of granting Palestine full membership. This kind of rhetoric signals not just disappointment with Israel's actions, but also serves as code for various states, including Saudi Arabia, to publicly reassess their diplomatic engagements.
While some Israeli officials and analysts still hold out hope for normalization under the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the geopolitical realities on the ground complicate this narrative. Analysts believe Trump's policy would hinge significantly on his close relationship with MBS, which includes avowed opposition to Iranian influence. Yet, observers caution against underestimations; sentiments on the ground within Saudi Arabia's borders are shifting dramatically, with public opinion increasingly supportive of Palestinian causes. Daily graphic images stemming from Gaza's devastation place immense pressure on the Saudi leadership to take a strong stand against Israel - even more so as calls for solidarity ring across the nation.
The current situation presents various interpretations, depending heavily on where one stands politically and regionally. For Trump's administration, with key positions being filled by pro-Israeli figures such as Elise Stefanik and Mike Waltz, the expected abrasive posture toward Iran may seem like the preferred approach. Stefanik's statements calling for "maximum pressure" on Iran, combined with incoming reports urging support for actions perceived as defensive on behalf of Israel, seem to set the stage for heightened tensions rather than diplomacy.
Yet, it is also clear Trump's administration would aim to leverage relationships with Arab states to redefine the narrative on Israel-Palestinian relations. Biden's administration, which promoted the idea of normalization as leverage to invoke peace talks, has also faced backlash. With Biden's critique of Israel’s military operations against Gaza dominating media headlines, there's palpable unrest among Muslims and Arabs concerning their government's dealings with Jerusalem, alongside increasing demands for accountability for civilian casualties arising from Israel's military operations.
On the ground level, one cannot overlook the palpable sentiment of outrage within the region. MBS's condemnation of Israel’s actions being outlined as “genocide” captures the growing public backlash against normalization initiatives. King Abdallah of Jordan also expressed disappointment and concern, accentuating the united Arab front against perceived injustices occurring during the Gaza conflict.
Experts caution against seeing MBS solely as pro-Israeli; his actions suggest he seeks to navigate the turbulent waters as both international relations and domestic opinions coincide within this climate. Meanwhile, anger within the streets and political arenas pushes leaders to take more hard-lined stances than they perhaps originally intended.
Despite acknowledging his long-term objective of fostering some form of relationship with Israel, MBS now seems caught between the pressure to respond to Arab solidarity and the imperatives of longstanding ties with the West, particularly the United States. If relations with Israel were meant to rekindle under his rule, the onset of recent events likely did not factor as part of the calculations.
Public sentiment could very well prove to be the decisive factor. Calls by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for Muslim states to abstain from normalizing relations with Israel echo strongly as discontent percolates through the populace. His statements calling for reassessment of ties with Israel, reinforced by perceived international neglect, batter the narratives supportive of normalization.
The proximity of the Israel-Palestine conflict to daily lives through traditional media coverage, along with the immediacy of social media platforms, amplifies the need for leaders to listen to their constituencies beyond short-term political gains. A viable path to peace relies not only on detailed negotiations but also on addressing deeply rooted grievances.
For Saudi Arabia, the road to normalization with Israel remains fraught with conditions and setbacks. A return to the table would require more than just the right political combination; it may necessitate comprehensive examinations of public relations, human rights issues, and transparency – particularly concerning Israel's treatment of Palestinians. With sentiments so vividly charged, stability requires careful maneuvering within the seas of Middle Eastern politics.
While the machinations of political power shift and the pieces move on the regional chessboard, one truth remains prominent: both leaders and citizens alike are grappling with the tremendous ramifications of actions taken—flattening of Gaza, lamenting of Palestinian suffering, and the call for justice reverberate loudly across the region, leaving lasting impressions on future diplomatic frameworks. Change may be on the horizon, but until then, any normalization discussions remain ash clouds upon the horizon as reality jolts leaders to reexamine their stances.