The Houston Rockets are at a crossroads this offseason as they consider their next steps following a season that saw them earn the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. General manager Rafael Stone has expressed satisfaction with the growth of their young talents, yet he remains cautious about simply maintaining the status quo. The focus now shifts to whether the team will trade for a star player or enhance their roster through free agency.
One player who may be on the trading block is Jalen Green, the 23-year-old shooting guard who was drafted second overall in 2021. Green's tenure with the Rockets has been marked by controversy, as his performance has drawn both praise for his athleticism and criticism for his inefficiency. After signing a three-year, $106 million contract extension in October 2024, Green's future with the team is now uncertain, especially following a disappointing playoff performance.
Statistics reveal a troubling trend for Green. This season, he recorded a -8.1 net-rating swing, meaning the Rockets had a significantly better net-rating of +11.2 when he was off the court compared to a mere +3.0 with him on it. This data was highlighted during Stone's recent exit press conference, where he was directly asked about Green's impact on the game. Stone responded, "That's a really flawed question. There's great data that we have and we use. I can make data say whatever I want it to say. We heavily use it, but we're careful." While Stone's defense of Green is understandable, it does not negate the fact that the numbers suggest a multi-year trend indicating that Green has been a net negative for the Rockets.
Jalen Green's offensive metrics paint a consistent picture of inefficiency over his four seasons in the league. His points per shot attempt have hovered around the same figures: 110.4, 108.8, 109.2, and 109.8. His assist-to-usage rates have seen slight increases, moving from 0.57 to 0.61, but his turnover percentages have remained relatively stable at 11.7, 11.3, 11.3, and 11.2. His effective field goal percentage has also fluctuated only slightly, with figures of 51.1%, 48.8%, 50.1%, and 51.0% across his career.
During the playoffs, Green's struggles were magnified. He averaged just 13.3 points per game with 2.9 assists, shooting 37.2% from the field and a dismal 29.5% from three-point range. Notably, his performance was buoyed by a standout 38-point game in Game 2 of the series, yet outside of that game, he failed to score more than 12 points in the remaining six matches. This inconsistency raises questions about his role on a team that is beginning to establish a clear identity, particularly with the emergence of Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.
The Rockets now face a crucial decision regarding Green. With his contract valued at $35 million per year, trading him could provide the Rockets with the opportunity to acquire a more competent guard who can effectively complement Sengun and Thompson. Given the recent discussions around the team's direction, it's clear that Stone must prioritize finding a player who can consistently execute alongside these two core pieces.
As the offseason unfolds, the Rockets have several paths they can take, whether it involves pursuing a star player, making incremental improvements through free agency, or sticking with the current roster. Stone's comments suggest that maintaining continuity might be the most likely outcome, but the question remains: what will that continuity look like?
Brandon Scott recently joined The Drive with Stoerner & Hughley to discuss the Rockets' prospects moving forward. He emphasized the importance of not only evaluating the current roster but also considering how the team can evolve to compete more effectively in the playoffs.
In conclusion, the Rockets are at a pivotal moment. The potential trade of Jalen Green could reshape the franchise's future, and with the right moves, they could enhance their chances of building a championship-caliber team. As they weigh their options, fans will be eagerly watching to see how Stone and the organization choose to navigate this critical offseason.
