On January 31, 2025, a diverse team from the Polar Engineering Research Group (PERG) at the University of Cape Town (UCT) embarked on its first field expedition to the Antarctic continent, determined to investigate the retreat and stability of the Fimbul Ice Shelf. Led by Professor Sebastian Skatulla, the group includes five postgraduate students—Kamva Tabata, Richard Ribbans, Tom Ansley, and Chisambo Ng'ambi—and field guide Hendrik Smith. This expedition is part of the larger research project titled, "Monitoring and Modelling the Deterioration and Retreat of the Fimbul Ice Shelf Under the Influence of Global Warming," aiming to fill gaps left by previous studies on this significant ice shelf.
This project is particularly noteworthy as it receives funding from the National Research Foundation’s (NRF) South African National Antarctic Programme, showcasing international collaboration with the German Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research and the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. Such partnerships highlight the global commitment to tackling the pressing issue of climate change.
Historically, Antarctica's ice shelves, which makeup three-quarters of its coastline, play a pivotal role in retaining massive ice sheets—containing approximately 60% of the world's freshwater. Such ice is at risk, with projections estimating potential sea-level rise of up to 58 meters should these ice reserves fully melt. The urgent need for comprehensive research becomes increasingly clear, especially as recent alarming trends indicate accelerated ice shelf retreat and record low sea ice levels.
The interdisciplinary team includes engineers, glaciologists, geodesists, and geophysicists who will employ advanced GPS and radar technologies to monitor the ice shelf's thickness and movement over time. The data collected will feed computer models aiming to predict future changes to the Fimbul Ice Shelf over the next 50 to 100 years under various climate scenarios.
Besides contributing to climate research, the expedition has practical applications, facilitating reconnaissance to identify crevasse hazards, which ensures the safety of future research operations and expeditions at the SANAE IV station.
A new study from the University of Florida offers additional insights, showing how Antarctic ice shelves are responding to climate change. It notes rising temperatures are accelerating ice shelf loss, largely due to frequent smaller calving events rather than large-scale catastrophic calvings. Lead researcher Emma Mackey stated, "Our results suggest the primary threat to our ice shelves is ‘death by a thousand cuts’ from small calving events, rather than catastrophic extreme events." This study highlights how climate change impacts are more gradual but equally dangerous.
The team's research coincides with historical insights from ice core records analyzed by scientists from the University of Cambridge and British Antarctic Survey. Their findings reveal significant changes to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during periods of natural warming over the last 100,000 years, providing valuable data on how similar warming trends could impact current ice dynamics.
According to Louise Sime from British Antarctic Survey, “Solving the puzzle of how quickly and how much of the Antarctic ice sheet melted during the Last Interglacial has been our goal.” Their work indicates the ice sheet experienced major losses without necessarily leading to complete collapses, as climate models previously suggested.
Nick Golledge, co-author from Victoria University of Wellington, emphasized the relevance of such historical investigations for today's climate models. He said, “Data from Skytrain Ice Rise are invaluable for modellers trying to understand how the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might behave under future warming.” With such historical comparisons, researchers hope to improve predictions about upcoming changes.
This expedition from UCT, emphasizing collaboration and research, holds potential benefits not just for South Africa but for global climate policies and conservation efforts. The resulting knowledge will be invaluable for improving models related to sea-level rise, which, if not addressed, could lead to devastating impacts worldwide.
With the team scheduled to return on February 15, 2025, their work marks only the beginning of what researchers hope will be substantive advances toward comprehending the dynamics of the Antarctic ice shelves. The collective efforts of international researchers provide hope amid the increasingly dire climate crisis.