In a stunning political upset, Nigel Farage's hard-right Reform UK party has claimed victory in the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election, defeating the ruling Labour Party by a razor-thin margin of just six votes. This election, held on May 2, 2025, marks a significant shift in the UK political landscape, highlighting growing discontent among voters and the rise of populism in the country.
Former Conservative councillor Sarah Pochin secured the seat for Reform UK, overturning a staggering 14,696-vote majority previously held by Labour. Pochin's victory is notable not only for its slim margin—12,645 votes to Labour's 12,639—but also for the massive 17.4% swing from Labour, signaling a potential realignment in voter loyalty in what was once considered a safe seat for the party.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who was convicted of assaulting a constituent. This scandal undoubtedly played a role in Labour's struggle to maintain its hold on the constituency. In her victory speech, Pochin declared, "The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken - enough is enough. Enough Tory failure, enough Labour lies." Her words encapsulated the frustration many voters feel towards the traditional parties.
Turnout for the by-election was reported at 46.33%, which is around the average for UK parliamentary elections. However, it was notably lower than the 59.7% turnout during the last general election in the same constituency. This decline in voter engagement could reflect a growing disillusionment with established political parties.
Farage, who was present at the count, expressed his satisfaction with the result, stating, "We can see that support for the Labour Party has collapsed within 10 months of them winning the general election. I think we've supplanted the Conservative Party now as the main opposition party in government." This assertion highlights Reform UK's ambition to position itself as a credible alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives.
The Runcorn by-election result has historical significance as it sets a new record for the smallest majority at a parliamentary by-election since World War II. The previous record was held by the Liberals, who won by 57 votes in Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1973. The dramatic recount, which delayed the announcement of the result for several hours, added to the tension surrounding the election.
In addition to the by-election victory, Reform UK also made significant inroads in local elections held across England on May 1, 2025. The party secured its first mayoralty in Greater Lincolnshire, with Andrea Jenkyns winning by a commanding majority of nearly 40,000 votes over the Conservatives. This success in local governance may further bolster Reform UK's profile and influence in future elections.
Labour's leader, Sir Keir Starmer, acknowledged the party's defeat and the need for change within his ranks. He stated, "I get it, we were elected in to deliver change, we've started that change – waiting lists down, wages up, interest rates down. The message I take out of these elections is we need to go further and faster on the change people want to see and that's what I'm determined to do." Starmer's comments reflect a recognition that Labour must adapt to the evolving political landscape and address the concerns of disillusioned voters.
Critics within Labour have pointed to the party's controversial decisions, such as cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners and disability benefits, as factors that contributed to their electoral losses. One Labour campaigner noted that these issues were frequently raised on the campaign trail, indicating a disconnect between the party's policies and the needs of constituents.
In contrast, Reform UK capitalized on these sentiments, focusing its campaign on immigration and other pressing issues. Farage's party has increasingly positioned itself as a voice for those who feel abandoned by the mainstream parties. The party's messaging resonated with voters, particularly in areas where traditional Labour support has waned.
The Conservative Party, meanwhile, faced a significant decline in support, dropping from 16% of the vote at the last general election to a mere 7% in the Runcorn by-election. This decline raises questions about the party's future and its ability to maintain its base amid rising competition from Reform UK.
As the political landscape continues to shift, the implications of this by-election could be far-reaching. With over 1,600 municipal seats up for grabs in the recent elections, Reform UK is poised to make further gains. Polls suggest the party could secure at least 300 of these seats, potentially reshaping the UK's political dynamics.
The results from Runcorn and the wider local elections will undoubtedly prompt reflection within Labour and the Conservatives. As both parties grapple with the rise of Reform UK, they face the challenge of reconnecting with voters and addressing their concerns in a rapidly changing political environment.
In the coming months, all eyes will be on how Labour responds to this setback and whether Reform UK can sustain its momentum. The outcome of the Runcorn by-election serves as a stark reminder of the shifting allegiances in British politics and the growing appetite for alternatives to the established parties.
