The 13-year civil war in Syria has roared back to life with recent events shaking the Middle East once again. A coalition of rebel fighters has launched a surprise offensive, capturing Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city and a historical center of trade and culture. This sudden change has disrupted the existing power dynamics, posing significant threats to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and possibly drawing regional powers such as Russia and Turkey back to the forefront of the conflict.
The surprise offensive began on November 26, when rebel forces attacked from the north and northwest of Aleppo. They swiftly pushed through various neighborhoods, gaining control of large parts of the city just days later. This marks the first time the balance of power has shifted within Aleppo since 2016, when Assad's forces, bolstered by Russian air power, reclaimed the city from the rebels.
The instability surrounding this recent offensive can be traced back to changing alliances and weakened government control. With Assad’s key allies, especially Russia and Iran, preoccupied with other regional conflicts, the rebels seized on the opportunity to advance. Russia's involvement elsewhere, particularly its military operations against Ukraine, has diverted its focus, leaving the door open for Syrian opposition forces to act decisively.
The rebels heading this offensive are part of the newly formed Military Operations Command, which garnered support from various factions within the opposition. Among them, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has emerged as one of the most formidable military units, exhibiting strength and unity as they push toward Aleppo. The Syrian National Army (SNA), closely tied to Turkey, has also joined this coalition, indicating the complex nature of alliances at play.
HTS, previously affiliated with al-Qaeda, rebranded itself to distance from purely jihadist affiliations, aiming to present itself as more attuned to governance and military strategy, though it still struggles with its radical elements. Their pushing back against Assad's forces is significant and poses questions about the future of conflict in Syria. This offensive might not just be limited to Aleppo but could spark similar actions throughout the country, especially as other groups such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) look to expand their territorial control.
Despite the rapid advance, the Assad regime has mobilized its defensive measures. Reports indicate the Syrian government has established renewed defenses to contain the rebel force on the outskirts of Hama, where clashes are also occurring. The Syrian army, with aerial support from Russian and their own forces, has initiated bombings of rebel positions to curb their momentum.
To understand the gravity of this situation, one must look back at the history of Syria's civil war. The conflict, which ignited during the Arab Spring of 2011 with peaceful protests calling for the end of Assad’s regime, has spiraled over the years as various factions have battled for power. The proliferation of extremist groups, the rise of ISIS, and the involvement of international powers have only complicated the matter. With estimated casualties surpassing half-a-million and millions displaced, there’s no question of the humanitarian impact this conflict has had, spreading instability throughout the region.
The rebel forces, emboldened by their recent successes, continue to assert claims to areas around Aleppo, capitalizing on the lack of sustained resistance. Their conquests could lead to fresh waves of violence not only within Syrian borders but also affect neighboring countries if the situation escalates. Already, Turkey, which perceives the YPG as linked to terrorist groups, has reported clashes between its allied Syrian groups and SDF units.
Looking forward, one must ponder the possible outcomes of this aggressive advance by rebels: could we witness escalated fighting across more territories, or might regional nations reconsider their tactical approaches to mediation? The stakes are high, and the world is watching as Aleppo serves not just as the backdrop for yet another chapter of the Syrian war but as pivotal battleground where longstanding allegiances and enmities flare anew.
