Real Madrid will face Atlético Madrid on Wednesday night, March 12, 2025, at the Metropolitano Stadium, hoping to maintain their 2-1 lead from the first leg of their Champions League last-16 clash. This match is seen as pivotal for both clubs, not just for progression to the quarter-finals but also for the pride associated with this intense city rivalry.
The stakes are high, as Real Madrid, with their storied history, are aiming to secure their spot among Europe’s elite once more. Following last week’s narrow victory at the Santiago Bernabéu, the Los Blancos have the psychological edge but know they will face immense pressure from their local rivals. "The motivation and the pressure will be very high," said Real Madrid’s coach Carlo Ancelotti. "We're doing well, motivated like always in the Champions League; it's a hard game, and we know it." His confidence is built on the team's rich history, having progressed 21 times from the 22 Champions League ties where they won the first leg.
Historically, Real Madrid has proven difficult to defeat, especially after gaining the upper hand, though they showed vulnerability last week, allowing Atlético Madrid opportunities to capitalize on defensive lapses. While Atlético Madrid has struggled recently, failing to win any of their last four matches (W0-D3-L1), they remain formidable on home turf where they haven't lost a Champions League knockout-stage match since March 1997.
Atlético is counting on their fierce home support to help them overturn the deficit. Their previous successes, including stirring comebacks, provide hope. The team has prevailing stats; they have lost only one of their past seven home games against Real Madrid across all competitions, recording three wins and three draws, showcasing their resilience at Metropolitano.
Diego Simeone, Atlético's passionate coach, expressed optimism, stating, "Our objective is to play in the final." His belief is echoed by players, including Rodrigo de Paul, who believes they need to outscore Real Madrid, acknowledging the unpredictability of football. "90 minutes is very long, and we will go through many situations; we have to be smart," De Paul added. With players like Julián Alvarez, who scored and assisted goals consistently in the past few games, Atlético holds key elements needed to create chances.
Real Madrid's attacking prowess remains significant. The team has scored 28 goals over 11 Champions League games this season, averaging 2.55 goals per game, their highest since the 2016-2017 season. Their attacking midfielders Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior pose serious threats as they look to pounce on any set pieces or transitional plays, with Rodrygo being 4.5 to score anytime, indicative of his current form.
Despite the tough atmosphere, Ancelotti has instilled resilience within his squad. Kylian Mbappé, criticized after missing penalties earlier this season, is under pressure to rise to the occasion, particularly since he had quiet moments during their first encounter. Tchouameni insists, "Kylian wants to score and win every game," reflecting the determination running through Madrid's camp.
The predicted lineup for Real Madrid includes key players such as Thibaut Courtois, who is expected to start even after minor knee discomfort, alongside defensive stalwarts like Antonio Rudiger and Federico Valverde. Meanwhile, Atlético may have absences — César Azpilicueta is unlikely to feature, and captain Koke remains doubtful.
Betting odds reflect the tight competition: Real Madrid is favored for qualification at 1.33, with Atlético at 3.5, highlighting the thin margin of expected outcomes. The draw is also seen as plausible at odds of 3.75, indicating how closely matched these teams are.
Real Madrid's recent form shows balance. They currently sit second with 57 points, closely pursued by Atlético with 56 points. The tight standings reflect the fierce competition, which adds layers of intensity to the match-up as both teams have displayed defensive and tactical acumen throughout the season.
Tonight's match promises to be charged with passion, tactical battles, and possibly even drama as both sides strive to secure their path through this fiercely contested European cup. With all playing for glory and survival, every minute counts, and small details will surely shape the outcome.