Recent discussions among provincial leaders have rekindled debates about the future of trade agreements within North America, particularly the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) replacement known as CUSMA—Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has openly endorsed Ontario Premier Doug Ford's provocative proposal during discussions on trade, advocating for Canada and the U.S. to reconsider their relationship with Mexico. The duo is pushing for new arrangements following concerns about Mexico's adherence to trade policies, especially concerning its engagement with China.
During a recent appearance on CBC's Power & Politics, Smith responded affirmatively when asked about Ford's suggestion to exclude Mexico from the trading bloc if it doesn't tighten restrictions against Chinese imports. "A thousand per cent," she emphasized, conveying her strong alignment with Ford’s perspective. Through her remarks, she pointed out what she considers Mexico's failure as an equal partner, particularly highlighting its increasing openness to Chinese investments, which she believes compromises Canadian and American manufacturing interests.
Ford’s stance hinges on the notion of reverting to something akin to the bilateral trade pact existing before NAFTA's establishment in 1994. He is particularly concerned about how Mexico functions as "a backdoor for Chinese cars, auto parts, and other products" infiltrated within the Canadian and American markets. Ford believes if Mexico does not align its tariff policies with those of Canada and the U.S., then, as he put it, "they shouldn't have a seat at the table or enjoy access to the largest economy in the world." This sentiment reflects wider concerns about ensuring fair trade practices across the region.
Both Smith and Ford are urging for consideration of bilateral agreements with the U.S. as they believe this may provide advantages over maintaining the current trilateral structure. "If we can get a bilateral agreement, I think it would allow us to avoid tariffs and forge constructive relationships with the United States," Smith noted, urging immediate focus on reshaping trade dynamics to benefit their respective provinces.
Through their dialogue, it becomes clear the topic resonates deeply within Canadian politics and commerce, as increasing apprehensions about Chinese economic influence and manufacturing capabilities arise. These concerns are especially pertinent as leading figures, including U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, signal intentions to reevaluate the CUSMA terms when its review period approaches in 2026.
Compounding this scenario is the rising presence of Chinese technologies and investments, particularly within the automotive sector, where firms like BYD have actively pursued locations for electric vehicle plants within Mexican borders. The U.S. government has articulated discomfort with these developments, fearing they could reinforce Chinese manufacturing footholds directly at its doorstep. Ford addressed this issue directly, asserting the necessity for "free trade to be fair"—a view shared by Smith as well.
Peering from the other side of this discourse, Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland has also weighed in, acknowledging the validity of American concerns about Mexico’s policy alignment with China. During interviews, she affirmed the necessity for all three countries to remain on the same page concerning trade practices. Yet she has refrained from explicitly endorsing Ford's proposal on revisiting the bilateral agreement with the U.S.
On the ground, provincial leaders, including Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, perceive opportunities for greater influence. Kinew highlighted the federal government’s increasingly election-focused narrative, urging provinces to immerse themselves more deeply within international trade discussions—perhaps leveraging their unique resources and establishing stronger ties with U.S. lawmakers along the way. His earlier delegation to Washington serves as evidence of this outreach, which he argues is increasingly necessary.
Despite the sentiments expressed by leaders from Alberta, Ontario, and beyond, the Mexican government has been quick to counter. President Claudia Sheinbaum dismissed the proposed ultimatum as lacking any viable future, defending Mexico's stance during negotiations and emphasizing it has consistently supported Canadian interests throughout trade talks.
The contentious waters of trade policy are front and center as regional leaders grapple with balancing lucrative international partnerships against the backdrop of national interests. Unfolding discussions reflect the mounting pressure to adapt trade agreements to the realities of modern global economics.
This reshaping of priorities among provinces continues to raise questions about the robustness of the current CUSMA framework. Key elements of responsiveness to economic shifts, domestic resource management, and foreign investment regulations will be instrumental as Canada navigates these pivotal discussions before the slated 2026 review.
Moving forward, the need for clarity and strategy will only heighten as various stakeholders assess their roles within this turbulent climate. The interplay of power dynamics, foreign relations, and economic viability comprises the backbone of the conversation surrounding NAFTA's future.
Clearly, whether Canada will withdraw from or adapt its commitment to this trilateral agreement remains to be seen. Until leaders can reach consensus on the path forward, the rhetoric surrounding trade will likely intensify, pushing these issues squarely onto the forefront of Canadian politics and its economy.
