The 122nd edition of Paris-Roubaix is set to unfold on Sunday, April 13, 2025, with cyclists and their teams keeping a close eye on the weather forecast. Météo France has predicted rare showers for the night leading up to the race, which could significantly affect the race conditions on the notoriously challenging cobblestone roads.
The race will commence at 11:25 AM from Compiègne, where the weather is expected to be very cloudy with a wind speed of around 15 km/h. As the cyclists make their way into Troisvilles around 1:30 PM, some sunny spells are anticipated, although the lateral wind is expected to increase to 20 km/h, potentially complicating the race strategy for the teams.
In the days leading up to the event, the Hauts-de-France region has experienced a historic drought, with only 11 millimeters of rain recorded between March 1 and April 9, 2025. This lack of moisture has led to dry and dusty conditions on the cobblestones, which can become treacherous with even a small amount of rain. Kévin Floury, a weather journalist for BFMTV, has pointed out the risk of "summer black ice," which occurs when dry roads receive rain that doesn’t wash away the accumulated pollutants, making the surface dangerously slippery.
As the race progresses, competitors will encounter several iconic sectors, including the Trouée d'Arenberg and Carrefour de l'Arbre, where wet cobbles can lead to unexpected accidents. Floury warns, "When the first drops of rain fall, the particles will become hydrophobic. In other words, it will slide, and it can cause accidents." This situation raises concerns among the riders, particularly given the high stakes of the race.
Oliver Naesen, a rider representative, expressed his apprehension about the potential for crashes, stating, "In a dry edition, you can estimate that out of 150 riders, at least 30 will crash. With rain, we could see up to 100 riders on the ground." This sentiment echoes the fears of many competitors who know that the risk of falling increases dramatically in wet conditions.
Among the favorites this year is Mathieu Van der Poel, who is aiming for a historic third consecutive victory. He faces stiff competition from Tadej Pogacar, who recently won the Tour des Flandres and is making his Paris-Roubaix debut. Wout van Aert and Mads Pedersen are also strong contenders, each hoping to capitalize on any missteps that may occur due to the unpredictable weather.
As the riders prepare for the race, they are aware that the conditions can change rapidly. While the forecast suggests that rain may not fall during the race itself, the threat of slippery cobbles looms large. The last edition of Paris-Roubaix held partly in the rain occurred in October 2021, a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and riders are eager to avoid similar conditions this year.
As the clock ticks down to the start, teams are strategizing on how best to navigate the unpredictable weather. Some riders believe that a light rain could actually help by cleaning the cobblestones, but they all agree that heavy rainfall would be disastrous. The tension is palpable as the peloton prepares to tackle one of the most challenging races in cycling.
In summary, the 122nd edition of Paris-Roubaix promises to be an exhilarating event, but the weather will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. With the potential for slippery roads and strong winds, every rider will need to remain vigilant and adaptable. As the sun rises on race day, fans and participants alike will be watching closely, hoping for the best while bracing for the worst.
