NASA's ambitious Artemis program, which aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable presence by the end of the decade, is facing increasing scrutiny from the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP). During a recent public meeting held on January 30, 2025, the panel urged NASA to reassess the objectives for the upcoming Artemis missions, particularly Artemis 3, which is set to be the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17.
Bill Bray, a member of ASAP, expressed concern over the overwhelming number of first-time objectives packed within Artemis 3, highlighting the unique risks associated with each added milestone. "Each first milestone carries its own individual risk and, as these risks are compounded and aggregated, it only increases the overall risk posture for any individual flight mission," Bray stated. The panel previously noted there are 13 separate firsts planned for Artemis 3, many of which revolve around untested technologies such as the Starship lunar lander and new spacesuits being developed by Axiom Space.
NASA's current challenges are compounded by issues they faced during the Artemis 1 mission, which has led to significant changes to the heat shield design for future missions. The agency announced it would reformulate the Avcoat material used for the heat shield to prevent the erosion problems encountered during reentry. Bray pointed out, "A single key element's problems will result in continued launch delays and disrupt NASA’s entire lunar campaign." Such concerns extend to future Artemis missions, which also plan to incorporate the lunar Gateway, the Blue Moon crewed lunar lander, and a lunar rover, adding complexity to the logistical framework.
The ASAP panel emphasized the importance of treating each Artemis launch as both a test event and the need for clear, achievable objectives. This approach is aimed at maintaining a steady cadence and ensuring safe exploration missions without overwhelming risks. The integration of new technologies, such as SpaceX's Starship and Blue Origin's Blue Moon, is also pointed out as potential wildcards; delays or issues with these partnerships could have cascading effects on the broader timeline for Artemis.
Collaborations with key partners like SpaceX and Blue Origin are deemed necessary for the success of the Artemis missions. Mark Wiese, manager of NASA's Deep Space Logistics program, noted during the SpaceCom conference the changes to logistics needs have influenced SpaceX's approach to delivering cargo to the Gateway. “We spent all of last year working collaboratively with SpaceX,” he recounted.
Despite the challenges, both companies have marked commendable progress across their contracts to develop crewed lunar landers. Kent Chojnacki, deputy manager of NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) program, remarked on SpaceX's successful test flights showcasing the capabilities of Starship/Super Heavy and highlighted significant milestones for Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, which successfully launched earlier this January.
For the year 2025, the key milestones to watch include SpaceX's plans for performing an in-space propellant transfer demonstration, which is pivotal for their lunar missions and Blue Origin's upcoming design review for its Blue Moon lander. The interplay of successes and setbacks within these partnerships stands to either advance or hinder the goals of Artemis.
Contentious discussions surrounding the ambitious objectives of Artemis 3 affirm the necessity for recalibrated strategies at NASA. ASAP's indications urge the agency to assure mission reliability through stringent testing protocols, making the needed adjustments as they progress toward their lunar objectives. Bray remarked during the meeting, "We are continuing to press NASA to rethink its current mission objectives to achieve balanced risk exposure across all flight tests.”
While NASA hopes to launch Artemis 3 by 2025, the agency will likely face delays as they continue to navigate uncertainties with innovative technologies still under development. The Artemis program, intended to redefine human presence on the Moon, finds itself at the intersection of hope and caution as it embarks on this new chapter of space exploration.