In a revealing new survey published by Paraná Pesquisas on April 22, 2025, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces significant challenges ahead of the 2026 presidential election. The poll indicates that over half of Brazilian voters, specifically 51.9%, would not consider voting for Lula, marking a notable increase in his rejection rate since the last survey conducted in July 2024.
The survey, which included responses from 2,020 voters across 160 municipalities in Brazil from April 16 to April 19, shows that only 24.5% of voters would definitely support Lula's re-election, while 22.3% might consider voting for him. This decline in guaranteed support from 29.5% in July 2024 to the current figure highlights a troubling trend for the incumbent president.
In comparison, Lula's potential adversaries also face their own challenges. Former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently ineligible to run due to legal issues, has a rejection rate of 46.4%. Meanwhile, Michelle Bolsonaro, the ex-first lady, is rejected by 43.9% of voters, and São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas has a rejection rate of 37.1%.
The survey further explored various electoral scenarios, revealing that Lula would be at a disadvantage in potential second-round matchups against both Jair Bolsonaro and Michelle Bolsonaro. In a hypothetical second-round election, Bolsonaro would win with 46% of the votes compared to Lula's 40.4%. In a matchup against Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady would secure 45% while Lula would garner 41%.
The research also tested scenarios involving Tarcísio de Freitas, who would defeat Lula with 43.4% to Lula's 40.6%. These results indicate that Lula's path to re-election is fraught with significant obstacles, particularly against strong candidates from the right.
In first-round simulations, Bolsonaro leads with 38.5% of the voting intentions, while Lula follows with 33.3%. Ciro Gomes, a candidate from the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), ranks third with 9.7%. The results suggest that if the election were held today, Lula would struggle to maintain his position against the right-wing candidates.
Interestingly, the survey indicates that Lula's support has been waning in comparison to previous polls. For instance, in February, Lula was at 34.1% and Michelle Bolsonaro at 27.2%, but the current figures show a tightening race where they are now technically tied, with Lula at 33.7% and Michelle at 31.7%.
In a separate scenario involving Tarcísio de Freitas, he would receive 27.3% of the votes, falling behind Lula. The governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior, is also tested in the simulations, but he trails significantly with only 16.2% support.
The implications of these findings are substantial, as they suggest a shift in the political landscape of Brazil leading into 2026. With Bolsonaro's legal challenges, including a conviction for abuse of political power that renders him ineligible until 2030, the political dynamics could shift dramatically depending on whether he is allowed to run.
The research conducted by Paraná Pesquisas boasts a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, underscoring the significance of these findings. As the election approaches, the evolving sentiments of Brazilian voters will be crucial in shaping the strategies of all potential candidates.
As Lula navigates this turbulent political terrain, he must address the growing discontent among voters and work to solidify his base before the upcoming elections. The survey results serve as a stark reminder of the challenges that lie ahead for the current administration.
