Pope Francis died on the morning of Monday, April 21, 2025, at the age of 88, leaving the Catholic Church and the world in mourning. The pontiff passed away at his residence in the Casa Santa Marta in Vatican City after a long battle with double pneumonia, having been hospitalized for about 40 days prior to his death. His passing has sparked immediate speculation regarding his successor, with betting platforms already offering odds on potential candidates to fill the role of the next pope.
As the world reflects on Pope Francis's legacy, which includes a focus on social justice and care for the marginalized, the betting landscape indicates that Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines is the clear favorite to succeed him. According to various betting platforms, Tagle has a 50% chance of being elected, making him the frontrunner with odds of 1/1. This surge in popularity comes as he is often referred to as the "Asian Francis" due to his similar values and approach to leadership.
Tagle, who served as the Archbishop of Manila from 2011 to 2019, has become a prominent figure within the Church, advocating for the poor and emphasizing social justice. His appeal is not only rooted in his charisma and experience but also in his alignment with many of the values espoused by Pope Francis. Jake Ashton, a betting expert from the Online Betting Guide, noted, "The position of Luis Antonio Tagle as favorite reflects both his standing within the Vatican and his appeal for a global Church. His experience, charisma, and alignment with many of the values of Francis make him a strong candidate in the eyes of many bettors. However, this is one of the most unpredictable betting markets, and surprises can and do happen during a conclave."
Following Tagle, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Secretary of State of the Vatican, is another strong candidate with a 40% chance of becoming the next pope. His odds stand at 6/4. Parolin, who has been a close ally of Pope Francis, possesses significant diplomatic experience and is known for his moderate approach to various political issues facing the Church. His long-standing friendship with the late pope and his high-ranking position in the Vatican make him a formidable contender.
Other names being floated in the betting markets include Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ouellet has a 16.7% chance of being elected, with odds of 5/1. He is recognized for his traditionalist views and has previously resisted calls for changes in Church doctrine. Ambongo, who shares conservative views, is also noted for having publicly disagreed with Pope Francis on issues such as the Church's stance on same-sex blessings.
As speculation continues, the conclave to elect the new pope is expected to commence in approximately two weeks. The process involves a secret ballot among the cardinals, with a two-thirds majority required to elect a new pontiff. Currently, there are over 240 cardinals worldwide, but only those under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. This conclave will be particularly significant, as it follows the historic tenure of Pope Francis, the first Latin American pope, who reshaped many aspects of the Catholic Church during his leadership.
In addition to Tagle and Parolin, other potential candidates include Péter Erdő from Hungary, who has an 11.1% probability of being elected, and Peter Turkson from Ghana, who is listed with 9% odds. The Canadian Marc Ouellet and Congolese Fridolin Ambongo are also in the running, each with a 6.7% chance.
Dom Odilo Scherer, the Archbishop of São Paulo and one of the Brazilian cardinals eligible to vote in the conclave, remarked, “No one should be surprised if an African, Asian, or even an Italian cardinal is chosen as pope.” This statement underscores the global nature of the Catholic Church and the diverse possibilities for its future leadership.
Despite the excitement surrounding the betting markets, it is essential to remember that predicting the next pope is notoriously difficult. The selection process has historically been full of surprises, as seen in the election of Pope Francis himself, who was not among the frontrunners when he was chosen in 2013. The unpredictability of the conclave process means that while betting odds can provide insight into potential candidates, they do not guarantee outcomes.
As the world waits for the conclave to begin, the legacy of Pope Francis will undoubtedly influence the discussions and decisions made by the cardinals. His emphasis on compassion, inclusivity, and social justice will likely resonate with many of the candidates, particularly those like Tagle who advocate for similar values.
In the meantime, the betting markets will continue to evolve as new information arises and as the cardinals gather in preparation for the conclave. The anticipation surrounding the next pope's election reflects not only the significance of the role within the Catholic Church but also the broader implications for millions of Catholics around the world.
