Polls have officially closed across Waterloo region, Guelph, and Wellington County, with the CBC Decision Desk projecting another term for the Liberals in the 2025 federal election. As of late evening on April 28, 2025, the Liberals are expected to form their fourth consecutive government, although it remains unclear whether this will be a minority or majority government. Two notable candidates projected to secure their seats include Bardish Chagger in Waterloo and Dominique O'Rourke in Guelph, both of whom have been significant figures in their respective ridings.
In Wellington-Halton Hills, Conservative incumbent Michael Chong and John Nater in Perth-Wellington are also projected to retain their seats. Chong has been the MP for Wellington-Halton Hills since 2004 and remains a prominent figure in the Conservative Party. Meanwhile, Nater has similarly held his position in Perth-Wellington, demonstrating the Conservative stronghold in these regions.
However, the races in Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Conestoga, and Kitchener South-Hespeler are still too close to call, with many voters expressing significant concerns over issues such as housing, Canada's relationship with the United States, and the potential impact of tariffs on local employment.
In Cambridge, the Conservative candidate Connie Cody is leading over the Liberal incumbent Bryan May, who has held the seat since 2015. As of the latest reports, Cody was ahead with 189 of 215 polls reporting, a notable shift considering May's victory in 2021 where he won by over 2,200 votes.
Kitchener Centre presents another competitive race, with Green Party incumbent Mike Morrice facing a tough challenge. With 105 of 213 polls reporting, Conservative Kelly DeRidder was leading by a narrow margin of 133 votes over Morrice, while Liberal Brian Adeba trailed in third.
Kitchener-Conestoga has historically been a battleground, and this election is no exception. Conservative Doug Treleave had a 490-vote lead over Liberal incumbent Tim Louis, who previously won by just 577 votes in the last election. The close nature of this race mirrors past elections in this riding, where results have often come down to a few hundred votes.
Kitchener South-Hespeler is another riding that could see a change in representation. Conservative Matt Strauss is currently leading with a significant margin of 1,566 votes over Liberal incumbent Valerie Bradford, who won by a smaller margin of 947 votes in the previous election.
In Waterloo, Liberal incumbent Bardish Chagger was projected to win with nearly 57.7 percent of the vote, reinforcing her stronghold in the region. Similarly, in Guelph, Dominique O'Rourke is projected to win with 51.5 percent of the vote, succeeding Liberal MP Lloyd Longfield, who chose not to run again after serving since 2015.
As of 11:47 p.m., O'Rourke had secured 15,675 of 30,441 votes, while Conservative candidate Gurvir Khaira trailed with 10,156 votes, and Green candidate Anne-Marie Zajdlik followed behind. The results continued to show O'Rourke's lead, with 145 of 211 polls reporting by 11:49 p.m., where she had increased her vote count to 16,801.
In terms of overall election results, the Liberals have had 123 races called in their favor, leading in an additional 39 ridings. They have garnered a total of 4,361,847 votes, translating to 42.58 percent of the popular vote. The Conservatives have matched this count with 123 races called in their favor and leading in 26 other ridings, totaling 4,288,425 votes and 41.87 percent of the popular vote. The Bloc Québécois have also made their mark with 20 races called in their favor, while the New Democrats and Greens have seen limited success.
In summary, the 2025 federal election has seen a significant turnout, with approximately 7.3 million Canadians casting their ballots in advance polls, marking a 25 percent increase from the last election in 2021. Liberal Leader Mark Carney, who triggered the election after serving as prime minister for just over a week, has positioned himself as a strong candidate to lead Canada through economic challenges, especially in negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has focused on a platform of change, urging voters to reject the Liberals for another term, framing the election around key issues such as affordability and safety. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, has struggled to gain traction, with Singh encouraging voters to support NDP incumbents to hold the expected Liberal government accountable.
The election results are still unfolding, and as the night progresses, more details will emerge regarding the final seat counts and the overall political landscape in Canada.
