American global influence, once perceived as unassailable, is facing unprecedented challenges both domestically and internationally. Dr. Matthew Kroenig, speaking at the IRD's annual Christianity and National Security Conference on November 1, 2024, highlighted these tensions and the prospect of future conflicts with autocratic regimes.
Kroenig, who holds notable positions at Georgetown University and the Atlantic Council, emphasized the urgency of America's situation, as it contends with authoritarian leaders who are consolidative power across the globe. His experience advising the U.S. Congress on national security matters positions him uniquely to discuss the galloping rise of authoritarian states.
Historically, America leveraged its economic might, technological prowess, and cultural influence to establish itself as the linchpin of the post-World War II global order. Yet, as Kroenig pointed out, the structural underpinnings of American global power are weakening. The American share of global GDP has plummeted from approximately 50% to merely 15% today.
Meanwhile, China's ascent has fundamentally shifted global economic networks, particularly benefiting the Global South, as the Chinese government has eschewed military intervention for soft power mechanisms, such as infrastructure investments and cultural exchanges.
Beyond external competition, the United States grapples with formidable internal issues: widening income inequality, political polarization, and diminishing public trust. These domestic challenges erode America's ability to project consistent leadership on the world stage.
The specter of populist strongmen, exemplified by Donald Trump's potential return to power, looms large. Trump's first term marked the rise of insular policy measures, characterized by military adventurism without tangible gains and the abandonment of multilateral commitments, such as the Paris Climate Agreement. Such actions send mixed signals to allies and adversaries alike.
American military dominance remains intact, yet its reliance on interventions has backfired. Conflicts like those in Iraq and Afghanistan have drained resources and public support, leaving the Pentagon with little more than overconfidence and technological ambition without corresponding strategic success against asymmetric threats from rivals like China and Russia.
Meanwhile, the cultural face of America is changing. Once pervasive, American cultural hegemony, expressed through Hollywood and pop culture, is encountering formidable contenders. China's investment strategy, particularly through its global Confucius Institutes, has spread alternative narratives effective in regions like Africa and Latin America.
Efforts to revive American leadership necessitate innovative approaches. Cultural diplomacy programs such as “hip-hop diplomacy” exemplify potential pathways to engage globally, particularly with younger generations who are increasingly swayed by cultural narratives.
Kroenig's concerns align with the prescient warnings of historians, who have predicted the decline of American hegemony due to deepening domestic divisions and the rise of rival powers. Reports suggest these shifts may herald the end of the so-called American Century.
Importantly, the perception of American financial markets showcases another paradox. While U.S. geopolitical power wanes, the stock market remains buoyant, leading to potential financial bubbles. These bubbles, referred to as phenomena where good ideas become exaggerated, can result in sharp corrections, echoing previous economic downturns.
Trump's proposed policies, which many activists and observers worry could jeopardize democratic structures, resonate unsettlingly with the trend toward authoritarian practices. The complex global dynamics now require America to pivot from its historical role as global enforcer to one of collaboration and strategic partnerships, especially within the framework of burgeoning multipolarity.
Anne Applebaum, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, emphasized these challenges, describing the disturbing rise of coordinated autocratic tendencies across different nations. She notes the worrying trend of democracies like Hungary and Turkey devolving toward authoritarianism through subtle mechanisms, highlighting the global interconnectedness of these autocratic narratives and practices.
Reflecting on this turbulent backdrop, Kroenig called for renewed efforts to engage with developing countries, recognizing the enduring appeal of leadership rooted in multicultural approaches. A potential recalibration of foreign policy could facilitate successful collaborations, turning former rivals toward partnership, rather than confrontation, arriving at mutually beneficial agreements.
Despite the ominous predictions surrounding American influence, there lies the opportunity for reinvention. For the United States to navigate this transitional era successfully, leaders must act with humility and wisdom, embracing both change and collaboration on various fronts.
America, though facing significant challenges, retains the capability to redefine its global role within the shifting narrative, striving for impactful engagement rather than diminished presence. The path forward remains convoluted, yet not without promise for those willing to adapt.
