The region surrounding Kīlauea volcano in Hawaiʻi is currently under close observation amid a significant increase in seismic activity. Over the past week, the upper East Rift Zone (UERZ) of Kīlauea has experienced nearly 1,500 earthquakes, prompting the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to elevate the volcano's alert status to Advisory. According to scientists from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, although Kīlauea is not erupting at this time, the pattern of seismic activity and ground deformation suggests the possibility of magma movement beneath the surface.
On July 22, seismic activity started to climb, marking the beginning of a new earthquake swarm. The earthquake locations shifted from a broad distribution along the UERZ to concentrate near Pauahi Crater and then to clusters close to Koʻoloʻolau Crater. This activity indicates complex geological processes at play beneath Kīlauea, which is part of a volcanic system well known for its periodic eruptions.
Seismic monitoring and satellite data reveal a concerning trend of deflation at Kīlauea’s summit, a sign typically associated with the internal movement of magma towards the rift zones. Recent data, including observations made from the Italian Space Agency's (ASI) Cosmo-SkyMED satellite, illustrates ground deformation patterns indicating inflation in the UERZ.
In light of the recent uptick in seismic events, Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park officials have closed sections of roads and trails that closely align with the active rift zone to ensure visitor safety. Key closures are in effect on the Chain of Craters Road, which has become a critical area for monitoring activity. Access to certain campgrounds and trails has also been restricted as a precautionary measure against potential volcanic disturbances.
USGS scientists explained that the ongoing earthquake swarms are often a precursor to volcanic activity. However, history suggests that not all intrusive episodes lead to eruptions. In the last 50 years, Kīlauea's UERZ has witnessed about 50 similar episodes, with only five leading to actual eruptions. The brief eruptions that did occur typically lasted from a few hours to a month, during which lava would flow onto the surface.
If recent geological trends continue, scientists suspect that the current magma intrusion beneath the UERZ could either result in further earthquakes with continued ground deformation or, less likely, a short-lived eruption. The monitoring efforts by the USGS will remain vigilant as scientists seek to decipher the changing dynamics beneath Kīlauea.
This unique geological scenario provides researchers an invaluable opportunity to further understand the mechanisms of magma transport along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone. As scientists calibrate their equipment and analyze data collected from various platforms, their findings will help illuminate the potential paths of magma movement, potentially enhancing predictive models for future eruptions.
In reviewing the historical record of Kīlauea, it’s apparent that its current state is not uncommon for the volcano, which has a long history of eruptions and geological activity. However, the current volatility serves as a reminder of the power of nature and the ongoing need for monitoring volcanic systems, especially in areas densely populated or with significant tourism.
As the days progress, residents and visitors alike are advised to stay informed about the volcano’s status. The USGS continues to offer updates through various channels, providing timely information to facilitate understanding and preparedness in the face of natural disaster.
