After the recent election held on October 24, British Columbia's political stage has seen some unexpected twists, particularly with the rise of the Conservative Party of BC under John Rustad’s leadership. This election was unique, not only because the Conservatives secured 44 seats without having won any since 1975, but also due to the historic dissatisfaction with the existing government, which has set the stage for potential future victories for the party.
The Conservative Party's rebound can be attributed to various factors, including the diminishing influence of the BC United Party and widespread voter discontent. Mario Canseco, president of ResearchCo, noted, "A couple of people get sick, and the government could fall," indicating the precarious hold the current BC NDP has on power. Polling data suggests voters are growing weary of the status quo, leading them to explore right-of-centre politics.
Rustad’s unexpected rise parallels past political winds, reminiscent of the 1970s and 1980s when similar economic pressures fueled the election of conservative governments. The popularity of Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservative Party also provided Rustad with advantageous momentum. According to Richard Johnston, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, "Rustad is taking advantage of trends he didn't create but, nonetheless, exploited well."
Rustad’s political career began unexpectedly after he ran for the local school board and was elected as trustee. His dissatisfaction with the NDP governance under figures like Mike Harcourt pushed him to explore political options—encouraged by his wife, Kim. After initially joining the BC Liberal caucus and serving as minister of Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation, Rustad faced internal strife due to his dissent against the party's stance on climate change, leading to his ousting.
Upon joining the BC Conservative Party, which had been revitalized by supporters of Aaron Gunn, Rustad worked to reestablish the organization and grew its membership significantly prior to the election. The reforms and the increased number of members played a pivotal role as the BC Conservatives pushed to reclaim political relevance.
Another interesting phenomenon seen during this election was the support Rustad garnered from younger voters. He observed strong backing from the 18-35 age demographic, which traditionally leans left. This is partly attributed to their media consumption habits, reliant on social media platforms like TikTok and YouTube instead of traditional news outlets. Canseco also pointed out the surprising trend indicating younger voters were drawn to right-wing politics, something Rustad himself confirmed.
Campaign pledges from the Conservatives, including proposals to scrap the carbon tax and tackle crime, aligned with what many rural voters viewed as urgent issues. The election results showcased a clear divide—while the Conservatives thrived in rural, blue-collar areas affected by economic shifts, urban centers remained more supportive of the NDP.
Meanwhile, the BC NDP has been maneuvering within its own political lane, recently signing what they called a "cooperative agreement" with the Green Party. This agreement, albeit with harsh limitations for the Greens, was intended to solidify the NDP's grip on power without overt reliance on the Greens, who only represent two MLAS.
Significant points of contention lay within this agreement. Both parties hailed it as productive, but key components of the Green Party's campaign promises were left unaddressed, including pressing issues like fossil fuel subsidies and fracking bans. Jeremy Valeriote, the Green MLA, expressed optimism about the agreement's merits but conceded, "The community health centres won’t be in every riding," highlighting the limited ambition of the deal.
Critics argue this cooperative relationship benefits the NDP without fully addressing the core grievances of the Greens' voter base or those of the public. This sentiment was echoed by former federal attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould, who criticized the lack of focus on Indigenous peoples and severe reconciliation efforts within the accord.
Looking forward, the ability of the NDP to retain the upper hand and the shifting dynamics within British Columbia’s political scene suggest a rocky path for both the Conservatives and the NDP. Centered around Rustad’s unexpected emergence as a leader and the tenuous agreement between NDP and Greens, politics may very well change unpredictably as pressure builds from discontented voters.
While Rustad's tenure is just beginning, maintaining discipline within his party and responding to the internal conflicts already bubbling among his new MLAS will prove challenging. Similarly, the NDP's coalition with the Greens could face scrutiny if significant public issues continue to arise without adequate government response.
Overall, the October election left British Columbia at the cusp of potential political upheaval. With dissatisfaction rampant across several demographics and the emergence of significant right-wing support, it’s clear the political fabric of the province is shifting. All eyes will be on how effectively politicians respond to these desires for change and whether parties will align with the voters’ moods or become enmeshed within their internal conflicts.
