India has overtaken China to become the world's most populous country, with nearly 1.45 billion people, according to UN estimates. Despite this statistic, leaders from two southern states, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, are advocating for families to have more children as they express concerns over low birth rates and the aging population. Andhra Pradesh is exploring incentives to encourage larger families, even abolishing its previous "two-child policy" for local elections, with reports indicating neighboring Telangana may adopt similar measures.
Fertility rates across India have seen a sharp decline—from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of two. Alarmingly, fertility rates have dipped below the replacement level of two births per woman across 17 out of the 29 states and territories. The five southern states are at the forefront of this demographic transition, successfully reaching replacement-level fertility much sooner than the northern states. Kerala achieved this milestone back in 1988, followed by Tamil Nadu in 1993. Today, states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu report fertility rates as low as 1.6 and 1.4, respectively, often matching those of some European countries.
Leaders from southern states are worried about the potential repercussions of these demographic changes. With the first delimitation of parliamentary constituencies since 1976 scheduled for 2026, there's widespread fear among these regions of losing political representation and federal revenue. Demographers like KS James and Shubhra Kriti project significant gains for populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, potentially at the expense of southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Srinivas Goli, professor of demography at the International Institute for Science, shared these concerns, stating, "They fear being penalized for their effective population control policies..." The upcoming census redraws are pivotal as they will adjust constituency delineations based on population shifts. This looming change could adversely impact the long-standing economic successes of these southern regions, raising alarms over their voting power and access to federal funds.
The challenge posed by India’s rapidly aging population is also coming to the fore. According to Goli, the country is set to reach the milestone of 14 percent of its population being aged 60 and above within just 28 years—far quicker than countries like France and Sweden. This rapid aging is largely attributed to India’s previous success in reducing fertility rates, but it brings forth concerns about resources to support this older demographic.
"India is getting old before it gets rich," Goli added, highlighting how more than 40 percent of older Hindus fall within the poorest wealth quintile. For states with low fertility rates like Andhra Pradesh—boasting 1.5 births per woman—this means they will face significant challenges managing elder support without proportional economic wealth, creating pressure to find sustainable social security solutions. With limited resources available, can states properly cater to the needs of a rapidly aging population?
These states' worries are compounded by calls from influential leaders like Mohan Bhagwat, head of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, who recently urged couples to have at least three children to safeguard India’s future. Bhagwat stated, "According to population science, when growth falls below 2.1, ..." While such calls resonate with some, demographers caution against these simplistic solutions. Tim Dyson from the London School of Economics warned, "A birth rate of 1.8 births per woman leads to a slow and manageable population decline. But ... 1.6 or lower could cause 'rapid and unmanageable population decline'."
The socio-economic consequences of dwindling birth rates are already evident globally, driving some nations to declare their low fertility rates as national emergencies, as seen recently in South Korea. Many developed countries have begun focusing on healthy aging to address labor shortages. Dyson noted, "Developed countries, unable to reverse declining fertility, are focusing on healthy and active aging." For Indian states facing similar challenges, the pressing question remains: who will fill the void left by a declining workforce?
India has the potential to extend working years by implementing policies focused on healthy aging, prolonging the working age by five to seven years, ensuring the elderly remain productive. With projections indicating productive population benefits, the time to act is now. Srinivas Goli emphasizes the urgency, stating, "We are only reaping 15-20 percent of the dividend - we can do much more." With appropriate strategies, India could maximize its demographic dividend until 2047, producing economic benefits reflective of its growing workforce.
The challenge lies not only in encouraging higher birth rates but also adapting effectively to existing demographic realities. The urgent need for investment in the health sector, community centers, and social infrastructure cannot be overstated to cater to the aging populace. Therefore, the focus must shift to enhancing policies for the elderly health and security as societies evolve and demographics shift.
