Italy's political scene is witnessing remarkable stability under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is ready to enter 2025 with ambitious plans aimed at enhancing her country's standing on the European stage and beyond. Meloni has undergone significant transformation since taking office; once regarded as a potential threat to democracy, she is now viewed as a pivotal force within EU politics. This shift has raised her profile to the point where she is perceived by some as a mediator between the European Union and the United States, particularly with former President Donald Trump.
Over the last two years, Meloni's administration has made controversial moves, including passing legislation criminalizing surrogacy and allowing anti-abortion activists access to clinics, leading to widespread protests and strikes across Italy. Despite the backlash, polling indicates her party, Brothers of Italy, remains popular, well-ahead of the opposition, with current support hovering above 29%.
The stability of Meloni's government is particularly notable compared to the political turmoil seen across Europe, exacerbated by the rise of right-wing movements. Political analysts contend Meloni's government is firmly entrenched, with Lorenzo Castellani, a political scientist at LUISS Guido Carli University, stating, "The political crisis in 2025 seems highly unlikely." The opposition, primarily led by the Democratic Party (PD) and the Five Star Movement (M5S), is struggling to unify, enhancing Meloni's position.
Looking forward to 2025, Meloni declared it "the year of reforms" at her party's annual conference. Among these is the contentious differentiated autonomy reform, which has spurred outrage among opposition parties and scrutiny from the European Commission. Constitutional changes are also part of the agenda, though their progression has been deliberately slow.
Another focal point for Meloni is Italy's approach to managing migration. Her government is advocating for the Italy-Albania model for outsourcing migrant processing, which involves sending migrants to processing centers outside EU borders for their asylum applications. This proposal awaits a ruling from the European Court of Justice, and some uncertainty surrounds its implementation, particularly following previous court decisions limiting detention options.
Meloni's administration is also making waves with its vehement opposition to the EU's Green Deal. The Italian Prime Minister has labeled the deal's approach as "ideological madness," emphasizing its potential for deindustrialization across Europe. She has expressed fervent support for the automotive industry, calling for the suspension of fines against car manufacturers, viewing them as detrimental to job security and industry stability. Her coalition partner, Matteo Salvini, has echoed opposition to measures perceived as harmful to Italy's automotive sector.
Internationally, Meloni seeks to strengthen connections with the United States under Trump’s administration. She has emphasized the need for pragmatic engagement with U.S. officials and expressed desire to build on existing cooperation. The year 2025 is pivotal as Rome prepares to host the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which also highlights Meloni’s alignment with Ukraine against Russian aggression. While Meloni aims to strengthen Italy’s global positioning, EU Parliament chief Roberta Metsola has pointed out the importance of collective European leadership, noting no single leader can be as effective as the EU itself.
Further complicate Meloni's ambitions on the international stage is the increasing influence of Polish leadership as it takes over the EU Council Presidency. Analysts suggest this dynamic could lead to competition for mediatory roles within European and transatlantic discussions.
All these factors will play out against the backdrop of upcoming regional elections, which will serve as a referendum on the strength of Meloni's coalition. Currently, the centre-right already governs 12 of 20 Italian regions—a favorable position as the political climate remains comparatively calm.
Meloni's attempts to redefine Italy's place within Europe and her strategies for dealing with both domestic and international challenges set the stage for what promises to be a transformative year. With her popularity holding strong and her government seemingly secure, all eyes will be on Meloni as she embarks on 2025, often marked as the year of significant change and reform.
