The Istanbul Agreements of 2022 continue to linger over the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, shaping the scope and stance of current diplomatic discussions. Special U.S. envoy to the Middle East, Steve Whitkoff, termed the Istanbul protocols as "guidelines" for future negotiations, yet analysts warn any agreements drawn from these protocols may resemble documents of surrender for Ukraine.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has previously characterized the peace talks held in Istanbul as ideal frameworks for resolving the war, believing they encourage the West to concede to longstanding Russian demands. A report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reflects skepticism about any potential settlement based on these discussions, emphasizing Ukraine is unlikely to accept terms which they might perceive as capitulatory.
Analysts highlight the salient points of the Istanbul agreements wherein Ukraine was poised to abandon its aspirations for NATO membership, effectively committing to become a “permanently neutral state,” staying out of military alliances. Reports by the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times clarified the proposals made during rounds of talks earlier this year, indicating the initial consensus on the format for Ukraine's military engagement.
The proposed agreements outlined by Russia demanded strict limitations on Ukraine’s military capacity, capping the number of soldiers to 85,000, with strict conditions on the number and type of armored vehicles and artillery systems allowed. There was also a stipulation for limiting the range of Ukrainian missiles to just 40 kilometers, which would give the Russian military the upper hand by providing them room to position their forces closer to Ukraine.
Significantly, the agreements sought to establish international guarantees from several nations, including the U.S., U.K., China, France, and Russia, with attempts from Moscow to include Belarus as well. The role of these guarantor countries was to nullify existing international treaties and agreements incompatible with Ukraine's proposed neutrality, directly undermining any potential for military assistance.
Even though discussions under these agreements took place during early months of the full-scale conflict—when Russian troops were advancing on Kyiv—the tide has since turned with Ukrainian forces retaking territories. This turn of events brings the ISW assessments, stating unlikely acceptance of the Istanbul terms by Ukraine, to the forefront.
Ukraine’s steadfastness against caving to these conditions stems from their severe limitations on military capabilities and governmental autonomy. The Istanbul negotiations, characterized by extensive concessions to Russian demands—including renouncing NATO ambitions—were firmly rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, backed strongly by Western allies.
Looking to the future, Zelensky, having detached from the Istanbul agreements back in 2022, is expected to continue distancing Ukraine from any propositions resembling these earlier terms as the conflict evolves. The likelihood of accepting these stipulations is perceived as implausible, especially with the rising prospects of reinstated negotiations set against the backdrop of shifting military outcomes.
Meanwhile, U.S. confidence has emerged, with President Donald Trump and his administration reportedly expressing optimism about sealing a ceasefire deal between the two nations within the week. This promise reflects the continued hope among Western diplomats for some form of resolution, albeit under differing terms than those previously suggested by Russia.
Overall, the legacy of the Istanbul agreements continues to pose challenges for Ukrainian sovereignty and military independence, raising questions about whether such historic agreements might find relevance or renewal. The insistence on maintaining these terms amid shifting geopolitical landscapes emphasizes the contentious balance between the two nations moving forward.
Analysts assert unequivocally: “Ukraine is unlikely to accept any peace agreement based on the Istanbul negotiations, as these conditions signify complete capitulation to Russia's long-term military goals.” The sustainability of peace talks remains uncertain, potentially drawing new battle lines as Ukraine seeks to preserve its autonomy and stance moving forward.