The fall of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria has prompted Iran-allied factions in Iraq to reevaluate their push for U.S. withdrawal from the country, signaling potential changes to the security dynamics in the region. Multiple Iraqi and American officials have shed light on this development, emphasizing how the rise of Sunni Islamist rebels has altered the political calculus following years of U.S. military involvement.
Last year, the U.S. and Iraq reached an agreement to wind down the military mission of the American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State (IS) by September 2025. This plan included the withdrawal of U.S. forces from some bases where they had been stationed for two decades. Initially, political and armed factions aligned with Iran were among the most vocal advocates for the U.S. exit, especially after the tumultuous events surrounding the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza.
The war, which resulted in significant civilian casualties and displacement, fueled anti-U.S. sentiment across Iraq and the Arab world. Political leaders expressed confidence, stating the threat from IS had been sufficiently diminished, allowing for American forces to finally withdraw. But the sudden fall of Assad, following rapid offensives by Sunni rebels, has sparked new concerns within Iraq's Shiite-led government.
According to one official from the Shiite Coordination Framework, which unites various Iran-aligned political entities, many leaders are now advocating for the continued presence of U.S. troops. “Most leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework are in favor of keeping American forces in Iraq and will not want American forces to leave as a result of what happened in Syria,” the official stated.
The perception of increased vulnerability post-Assad seems to weigh heavily on the Coordination Framework. They recognize the potential for IS to exploit the security vacuum left by the changing political environment across the border. One high-ranking official from Iraq’s National Security Service expressed this apprehension, stating, “It is not in Iraq’s interest to request the withdrawal of the US and the international coalition from Iraq at the present time.”
U.S. defense officials, who also spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, noted heightened Iraqi government inquiries about delaying the end of U.S. military involvement. They cited valid concerns about IS taking advantage of broader chaos resulting from Assad’s ouster. “ISIS is not imminently going to make a resurgence, but it certainly could,” remarked one senior official, reinforcing fears among Iraqi leaders.
No official statement has yet come from the Iraqi government about extending the coalition’s military mission. Iraqi spokesperson Bassim al-Awadi maintained, “The time frames between Iraq and the international coalition have not changed.” While these talks are still informal, there appears to be growing recognition among Iraqi political leaders of the delicate balance necessary between their relationships with Iran and the U.S.
The situation highlights the complex dynamics facing Iraq’s armed groups, many of which have, at times, acted as both adversaries and allies to American forces. These groups, which were pivotal in combatting IS since its rise, have complicated ties with the U.S., contributing to unpredictable events like drone attacks on American bases during periods of heightened tensions.
Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank, noted the historical impact of regime changes, recalling the destabilization witnessed after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. “If the argument for removing the U.S. troops from Iraq was... the region is stable, ...that calculation has changed following regime change in Syria,” he emphasized.
Such sentiments are echoed across the ranks of Iraq's political leaders, who are now grappling not just with the immediate impacts of Assad's fall but contrasting with their earlier beliefs about stability and security following the perceived defeat of IS. The post-Assad future remains uncertain, and Iraqi officials are acutely aware of the risks involved as they navigate their position between American withdrawal sentiment and Iran's influence.
The potential for IS resurgence adds another layer of tension, with many Iraqi leaders resisting the notion of abandoning the cooperation established with U.S. forces over the years. Forced to respond to new developments, Iraq’s leadership seems compelled to advocate for their continued presence, protecting their interests amid the shifting geopolitical winds.
With Iraq now on the precipice of reconsidering its national security strategy, the ramifications of Assad’s removal from power may very well shape the future of U.S.-Iraqi relations—and the broader stability of the region—in the months and years to come.