The political tide is shifting dramatically in Syria as international powers begin to initiate diplomatic relations with the new authorities following the ouster of long-standing dictator Bashar al-Assad. The European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States are stepping forward to establish contact and examine the political transition underway within the country.
On December 16, 2024, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas announced plans to send representatives to Syria, aiming to engage with the newly formed government. "Not only words are important to us, we want things to go in the right direction. So not only what they say, but also what they do," Kallas stated, as reported by Censor.NET. This approach marks the EU's commitment to not leaving diplomatic vacuums during this turbulent period.
Kallas's statement came on the heels of renewed fighting and political shifts throughout Syria. The conflict, which had seen relative calm for several years, escalated once again on November 28, when fighting flared between Assad's forces and opposition groups around Aleppo. Just two days later, the coalition of opposing forces led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) reported significant advances, raising questions about the country's power dynamics and the future role of the Assad regime.
The UK is also asserting itself diplomatically. Foreign Secretary David Lammy confirmed on the same day as Kallas's announcement, the UK delegation’s discussions with HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Mohammed al-Golani. While HTS remains proscribed as a terrorist organization under UK law, Lammy emphasized the importance of supporting an inclusive transitional political process, stating, "This delegation underlines our commitment to Syria," and reiterated support for Syrian-led governance.
On the EU's side, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp articulated reservations about easing sanctions against HTS and suggested the removal of Russian military presence as necessary for any potential lifting of restrictions. "I think it’s too early to lift those sanctions," Veldkamp said during discussions preparatory to the EU’s foreign ministers meeting. An offshoot of al-Qaeda, HTS has sought to moderate its image since gaining power, yet it remains under scrutiny from international players.
The backdrop for these diplomatic overtures is the military and political debacle faced by Assad. Reports indicate he fled with Russian assistance as opposition forces advanced, leading to HTS taking control of Damascus and calling for the lifting of international sanctions. Al-Sharaa articulated this sentiment directly, stating, "Syria is very important geostrategically. They should lift all restrictions, which were imposed on the flogger and the victim – the flogger is gone now. This issue is not up for negotiation," in conversations with media outlets.
Despite the delicate situation, the US has also engaged directly with the newly empowered opposition forces. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed recent talks between U.S. officials and HTS leaders, emphasizing the need for the group to adhere to principles expected from international actors. This American political maneuvering adds another layer of complexity to the already fractured geopolitical scene surrounding Syria.
Concerns about the new governance structure under HTS linger as they are officially recognized by the US and EU as terrorist entities, casting shadows over the legitimacy of any diplomatic dialogue. Some continue to raise alarms about potential humanitarian violations and minority rights concerns, particularly with HTS’s Sunni fundamentalist roots. Veldkamp noted the importance of protecting the rights of all Syrians, including religious minorities such as Christians and Kurds, as conditions this new power structure must adhere to.
Looking forward, the discussions between European and American representatives and the new Syrian authorities will shape much of the geopolitical future of the region. With Russia's potential military agreements looming, it is evident the stakes are high, as several parties attempt to craft their narratives and strategies moving forward. The world is watching to see how these dialogues evolve and what they mean for Syria’s immediate future and long-term stability.
Assad's last public comments, stating, "At no point during these events did I also step down or seek refuge, nor was such proposal made by any individual or party," reveal the defiance he continues to project even as his regime crumbles. One thing is clear: the international community's response to these developments will be measured against their outcomes on the ground as each power navigates its interests within the shifting sands of Syrian politics.
