With the recent news confirming 2024 is set to be the hottest year ever recorded globally, it is unsurprising to witness the extreme heat waves affecting millions across Canada this past summer. A study conducted by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has revealed alarming insights, demonstrating how human-caused climate change has intensified nearly all of the country’s most severe heat waves.
This analysis was made possible by ECCC's rapid extreme weather event attribution system, which allows scientists to compare contemporary climate data to pre-industrial measurements. According to ECCC, this tool assists Canadians in grasping how human emissions and activities are influencing weather patterns today as these shifts occur.
“This helps Canadians understand how human emissions and activities are affecting our lives and weather today, as the changes unfolded,” ECCC spokesperson explained.
From June to September 2024, climate scientists assessed 37 of the most intense heat events across 17 regions of Canada. The results were stark: five of those events were found to be at least one to two times more likely to happen due to climate change; 28 were deemed two to ten times more likely, and four events were classified as “far more” likely, occurring at least ten times more than under normal circumstances.
Such findings echo the growing global pattern where the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are on the rise. ECCC reported, “as the global climate continues to warm because of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, Canada is warming at roughly double the global average rate.” The organization also noted the repercussions of this phenomenon—hotter springs and summers lead to earlier snowmelt, hazardous heat waves, and conditions conducive to wildfires.
Not long ago, Eastern Canada's June heat wave was deemed “much more likely” due to climate change, serving as another indicator of the alarming trend. Climate scientists are now gearing up to expand their attribution system, which will next focus on extreme cold temperature events this winter. They expect to include extreme precipitation analysis by 2025.
Recognizing the significant “direct and indirect” economic costs associated with extreme weather, ECCC’s report highlighted the devastating impacts of these heat waves, cold snaps, and floods. The agency pointed out how increased frequency of events typically categorized as “once every 100 years” is becoming the new normal, with recent years witnessing substantial economic repercussions. Insurance claims from extreme weather events have skyrocketed, from about $400 million annually from 1983 to 2008 to nearly $2 billion yearly since 2009.
2023 ranked as the second warmest year on record for Canada since data collection began in 1948, with the annual average temperature increasing by 2°C over the decades. Indeed, last year, four of the top ten costliest weather events occurred, following devastating examples such as the Fort McMurray wildfires, the Calgary flooding of 2013, and the historically impactful Quebec ice storm of 1998.
This year’s extreme weather served to solidify the consequences facing Canadians. The ECCC categorized one of its ten most impactful weather stories of 2024 as Jasper’s summer inferno, where record temperatures prompted catastrophic wildfires. Other destructive incidents included significant flooding, hurricanes, and cold snaps.
To highlight the impact of this year’s extreme heat and its aftereffects, two major wildfire incidents necessitated full local evacuations, displacing over 12,000 residents and 20,000 visitors. Specifically, Jasper National Park experienced devastating losses, with approximately 16% of its forest area and 30% of its town significantly affected.
The costs associated with the foreclosure of such entire communities amounted to billions, with recent estimates placing combined damages from Canada’s four costliest weather events at over $7 billion. Tragically, the human toll included over 40 deaths linked to these environmental fiascos.
ECCC's analysis serves as both a warning and a call for increased public awareness and preparedness. The agency emphasizes the importance of accessing timely weather information to mitigate the effects of these extreme weather phenomena. Canadians are encouraged to use resources such as the WeatherCAN application and visit Environment Canada’s website for pertinent updates.
Historically, severe weather has shaped human experience, but the increasing intensity attributed to climate change raises pressing concerns for the safety, health, and livelihoods of Canadians. The narrative presented by ECCC paints a harrowing picture of the weather we now inhabit and demands collective action to confront challenges posed by our changing climate.
