Claudia Sheinbaum made history on October 1, 2024, when she was sworn in as Mexico's first female president. This significant moment not only marks her rise as the first woman to hold the office but also as a prominent figure with Jewish heritage. The ceremony took place against the backdrop of tumultuous challenges left by her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), particularly economic struggles and the ever-looming threat of cartel violence.
Sheinbaum, at 62, is no stranger to leadership roles. Her previous tenure as the mayor of Mexico City and her background as an environmental scientist have equipped her with the skills needed to tackle the issues facing her country. Following her recent electoral victory where she secured about 60% of the vote, she has promised to continue and expand upon the transformative policies initiated by AMLO, which focused heavily on social equity and poverty reduction.
During her inaugural speech, Sheinbaum proclaimed, "It’s time for transformation, it’s time for women," emphasizing her commitment to enhancing women's rights and addressing the grave issue of femicides, which plague Mexico. Sheinbaum's agenda also involves improving access to public healthcare and education—areas she believes are fundamental to the long-term wellbeing of the nation.
Her financial strategies will be put to the test as soon as she unveils her first budget before November 15, 2024, aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit from 5.9% to 3.5% of GDP. Economists view this as pivotal for maintaining market confidence, particularly after inheriting the largest budget deficit Mexico has experienced since the 1980s. Alberto Ramos from Goldman Sachs Latin America pointed out the importance of disciplined budget management, public security, and protecting institutional integrity to preserve market sentiment.
Critically, the state oil company Pemex’s financial health looms large over her presidency. She has pledged continuity, stating, "We will maintain daily oil production at 1.8 million barrels," which is key to stabilizing government revenues.
Sheinbaum’s administration will also inevitably feel the impact of external factors, such as the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, where policy changes could affect trade and investment climates. Any shift, particularly if it involves increased tariffs aimed at Mexican goods proposed by candidates like former President Donald Trump, could reverberate through Mexico’s economy.
While she is expected to sustain significant aspects of AMLO’s vision—dubbed the Cuarta Transformacion (Fourth Transformation)—she must navigate through mounting challenges such as organized crime and corruption, issues for which AMLO was often critiqued. For the first time, Sheinbaum has promised to attempt to mitigate violence against women by potentially reforming laws aimed at combating gender-based violence, which is rampant throughout the country.
Critics have pointed to AMLO’s controversial policies, including the recent judicial reforms allowing judges to be elected via popular vote, which many believe may undermine the independence of the judiciary and decrease public trust. Sheinbaum navigated these concerns during her speech, asserting, "I’ll govern for everyone." This statement aims to assure citizens and investors alike of her intent to be receptive to diverse voices and needs.
Scholars and activists remain cautiously optimistic about Sheinbaum’s presidency. Estefanía Vela from the nonprofit Intersecta, which promotes equality, noted the importance of not just symbolic victories for women but also material changes benefitting those previously marginalized. With over five million Mexicans reportedly rising out of poverty under AMLO's government, there are both benchmarks to build on and areas needing urgent attention. Extreme poverty saw increases between 2018 and 2022, emphasizing the work needed to sustain progress.
Though there are substantial expectations resting on Sheinbaum’s shoulders, her government has already laid down the groundwork for ambitious reforms aimed at reconciliation within Mexican society. This includes socioeconomic proposals targeting the needs of working-class women, recognizing their roles as caregivers, and pledging to establish the “National Care System,” which would support unpaid care work.
Throughout her campaign, Sheinbaum sought to project herself not just as her mentor’s successor but as her own leader capable of addressing deep-seated inequities and laying the foundations for economic revitalization. How she navigates the complex climate left by AMLO and the expectations of citizens will be closely watched not only by Mexicans but also by world leaders. For many, her presidency serves as both hope and challenge, reflecting the will for change combined with the hard reality of governance.
Sheinbaum also faces fierce scrutiny over governance issues, particularly how she will address the armed forces' burgeoning control over civilian security forces. Human rights advocates express concerns about increasing militarization, which historically correlates to escalated violence against marginalized communities, especially women.
The sound of applause filled the Zócalo as she concluded her address, reiteratively stating, "Our guide is the happiness and wellbeing of the people. I pledge to you to keep making history." Whether Sheinbaum's vision translates to tangible changes for Mexico remains to be seen, adorned with the hope and promise her new presidency embodies.
